RESIST will apply a multidisciplinary systems-thinking framework that aims to integrate (i) scientific evidence on key ecosystem processes driving climate change and (ii) socio-economic aspects driving stakeholder decision-making, both of which ultimately affect the Resilience of Ecosystem Services provided by Intact and Sustainably managed Terrestrial ecosystems under future scenarios.
Project goals
RESIST will apply a multidisciplinary modelling framework that concomitantly accounts for biophysical feedbacks between natural ecological processes and socio-economic aspects driving stakeholder decision-making. This framework will allow to derive sustainable management strategies for ecosystems based on an active stakeholder dialogue and to address currently intractable science-policy questions, such as how to enhance the mitigation potential of intact natural ecosystems while reducing further degradation of intensively managed land for providing economic goods on the global financial market. To achieve this, we will develop a coupled modelling framework (Plant-FATE, CWatM, HadCM3) and align the expertise of IIASA researchers working in the Biodiversity, Ecology, and Conservation (BEC), Water Security (WAT), Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM), Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC), and Equity and Justice (EQU) research groups (see schematic diagram below).
Florian Hofhansl
Research Scholar (NODES, BEC)
Jaideep Joshi
Guest Research Scholar (EM)
Tania Maxwell
Research Scholar (BEC)
Elisa Stefaniak
Research Scholar (EM, BEC)
Silvia Artuso
Researcher (BEC, WAT)
Shipra Singh
IIASA Postdoctoral Fellow (EM, BEC, CDAT)
Mikhail Smilovic
Research Scholar (WAT)
Chris Smith
Guest Research Scholar (IACC)
IIASA core team
Florian HOFHANSL (PI, BEC) will coordinate the communication between project partners to enhance the flow of information among respective work packages and associated research group. Florian joined IIASA in 2018 as a postdoctoral research fellow working on the development of next-generation vegetation models. His background in plant ecology and applying his extensive experience gained from the AmazonFACE project make him ideally situated to ensure a realistic mechanistic representation of real-world processes in the proposed modelling activities.
Jaideep JOSHI (Co-PI, EM) will supervise model development and coordinate the coupling of models required in respective work packages. Jaideep came to IIASA with a Marie-Curie fellowship in 2019 and has since been leading the development of Plant-FATE under supervision of Ulf Dieckmann (former EEP/ASA) and Colin Prentice (Imperial College London).
Research questions
Following the proposed integrated modelling framework and applying the systems analysis framework developed by a foregoing strategic initiative we will be able to address the following research questions by sequentially coupling of models applied within respective work package (cf. schematic depicted below):
(1) What is the role of plant functional diversity and adaptive capacity for ecosystem resilience to projected climate change?
(2) How will natural and managed ecosystems across a drought gradient respond to future changes in climate?
(3) What is the effect of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning feedbacks on regional precipitation patterns and water availability for natural habitats and agricultural production systems?
(4) How do local stakeholders value ecosystem services and perceive environmental change and biodiversity loss?
(5) What are the safe operating spaces for the sustainable management of natural habitats and intensified human land-use systems under projected future climate change conditions?
© JJ
Case study regions
By addressing these pressing research questions in respective work package (WP) this project will guide National Member Organisations (NMOs) in managing currently ongoing crisis, such as projected climate change and global biodiversity loss. To achieve this, we have designed respective case studies in collaboration with researchers from the participating NMO countries (see schematic depicting respective study region and collaboration partners below).
For the Indian case study, we will build upon stakeholder interests in the Bhimashankar region, which have been identified by the fairSTREAM project, and use the results to parameterize the proposed modelling framework to (i) assess both natural and anthropogenic aspects driving ecosystem degradation with the goal to (ii) identify sustainable management recommendations that foster long-term resilience of both natural and intensified ecosystems.
For the Israel case study, we will expand our framework to capture belowground dynamics, (i.e., rooting strategies, and resource allocation to belowground plant organs in response to droughts) via integration of measurement data available for forest stands across a natural drought gradient.
For the Brazil/UK case study, we will apply a regional climate model (developed by the Met Office in the UK) to investigate the impact of intact versus a degraded Amazon Forest on the cycling of atmospheric moisture, which has been shown to crucially affect downwind water transport and water availability for intensified agricultural production in the breadbasket regions of Brazil.
© JJ
NMO collaboration partners
Richard Bets, Met Office, UK
David Lapola, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Brazil
Tamir Klein, Weizmann Tree Lab, Israel
Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi, BITS Goa, India
Deepak Barua, IISER Pune, India
Sumit Sen, IIT Roorkee, India
Publications (peer-reviewed articles)
Joshi, J., Hofhansl, F. , Singh, S., Stocker, B., Brännström, Å., Franklin, O. , Blanco, C.C., Aleixo, I., Lapola, D.M., Prentice, I.C., & Dieckmann, U. (2023). Competition for light can drive adverse species-composition shifts in the Amazon Forest under elevated CO2. BioRxiv 10.1101/2023.07.03.547575. (Submitted) Franklin, O. , Fransson, P., Hofhansl, F. , Jansen, S., & Joshi, J. (2023). Optimal balancing of xylem efficiency and safety explains plant vulnerability to drought. Ecology Letters 26 1485-1496. 10.1111/ele.14270. Joshi, J., Stocker, B.D., Hofhansl, F. , Zhou, S., Dieckmann, U , & Prentice, I.C. (2022). Towards a unified theory of plant photosynthesis and hydraulics. Nature Plants 10.1038/s41477-022-01244-5. Franklin, O. , Fransson, P., Hofhansl, F. , & Joshi, J. (2022). Optimal balancing of xylem efficiency and safety explains plant vulnerability to drought. bioRxiv (preprint) 10.1101/2022.05.16.491812. Joshi, J., Stocker, B.D., Hofhansl, F. , Zhou, S., Dieckmann, U. , & Prentice, I.C. (2020). Towards a unified theory of plant photosynthesis and hydraulics. BioRxiv 10.1101/2020.12.17.423132.
Data Protection Information & Declaration of Consent
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) is committed to protecting and respecting your personal data. Processing of personal data takes place in strict compliance with the principles and requirements of the GDPR and relevant Austrian legislation. IIASA exclusively processes data that is necessary for the relevant purpose, and continuously aims at safeguarding your personal data remains secure and correct. With this document we inform you about how we process your personal data, and how you are protected according to Art 13 and 14 GDPR. "Personal data" means any information relating to a natural person that can be identified, directly or indirectly, in particular by reference to an identifier such as a name, an identification number, location data or an online identifier. "Processing" means any operation performed on personal data, such as collection, recording, organisation, structuring, storage, adaptation or any kind of disclosure or other use.