Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.

The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.

News

Chinese children in classroom engaging in lesson

28 September 2021

Future prosperity in China is unlikely to be hindered by population aging

New research on China suggests that declining birth rates and an aging population might not hinder future prosperity when associated with better education of the young.
COVID-19 could cause declines in life expectancy in 2020 in severely affected areas

17 September 2020

COVID-19 could cause declines in life expectancy in 2020 in severely affected areas

A new analysis of period life expectancy around the world shows that the COVID-19 pandemic could cause a short-term decline in life expectancy in many regions of the world.

Projects

Silo in a sunflower field

BALancing humAn and Natural resource use for Circular bioEconomy (BALANCE)

Family wears protective mask while walking in the city

Demographic perspectives of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic

Hand die durch die Wand bricht

Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)

Human Tracks

Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)

Models

Mumbai, India, Passengers
IIASA researchers have developed multi-dimensional/multi-state models to study population dynamics at the global, regional, national and sub-national level.

Focus

24 June 2020

The gender dimension of sustainable development

Options Summer 2020: Our world is in the midst of an economic transformation as labor upheavals and climate change wreak havoc on present sustainability models. Could a focus on women’s empowerment help find a way out?
female head illustration

Events

06 April 2022 Atlanta, Georgia

IIASA at the PAA Annual Meeting 2022

29 November 2021 Online via Zoom

The causes and consequences of depopulation

05 December 2021 Virtual event

International Population Conference 2021