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Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Models, tools, datasets
Sub-national Population and Human Capital Projections
Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data Explorer (WCDE)
Projects
Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)
Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)
Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)
Staff
Samir K.C.
Research Group Leader and Research Scholar (MDM)
Marcin Stonawski
Guest Research Scholar (MDM)
Dilek Yildiz
Research Scholar (MDM, MIG)
Moradhvaj Moradhvaj
Research Scholar (MDM)
News
24 March 2023
Increasing education opportunities for girls could help reduce preventable deaths in children under five
An IIASA study shows that maternal education, and particularly secondary education, plays a significant role in reducing deaths in newborns and children under five years of age in both rural and urban areas of India.
24 January 2023
How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected immigration?
New research finds a high variation between how pandemic mitigation measures affected immigration to different destination countries, from a slight increase to huge reductions.
28 September 2022
Demography matters: the human life from birth to death
IIASA researchers participate in a seminar titled "Demography matters: the human life from birth to death", organized by Vienna Institute of Demography and Wittgenstein Centre.
Events
12 April 2023 New Orleans, USA
IIASA at the PAA Annual Meeting 2023
06 December 2023 Vienna, Austria
Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2023-Exploring Population Heterogeneities
Focus
28 November 2022
Standardizing migration data in Europe
Options Magazine, Winter 2022: Researchers illustrated the discrepancies in migration flow statistics across Europe to help standardize data and better understand migration patterns.
11 July 2022
Fertile feedback
IIASA research shows that increasing access to clean energy can rein in population growth, and so reduce future energy needs. Another study finds that falling fertility does not have to be bad news for economies.
24 June 2020
The gender dimension of sustainable development
Options Summer 2020: Our world is in the midst of an economic transformation as labor upheavals and climate change wreak havoc on present sustainability models. Could a focus on women’s empowerment help find a way out?
Publications
Ueffing, P., Adhikari, S., K.C., Samir, Poznyak, O., Goujon, A. , & Natale, F. (2023). Ukraine's population future after the Russian Invasion. Publications Office of the European Union , Luxembourg. 10.2760/607962.
Moradhvaj, M. & K.C., S. (2023). Differential impact of maternal education on under-five mortality in rural and urban India. Health & Place 80 p. 102987. 10.1016/j.healthplace.2023.102987.
K.C., S. & Gailey, N. (2023). Human capital futures in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus amid aging, depopulation, and high skilled emigration. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-23-003
Lazzari, E., Potančoková, M. , Sobotka, T., Gray, E., & Chambers, G.M. (2023). Projecting the Contribution of Assisted Reproductive Technology to Completed Cohort Fertility. Population Research and Policy Review 42 (1) 10.1007/s11113-023-09765-3.
Yildiz, D. , Adali, T., & Özdemir, C. (2023). La république turque a 100 ans. Qu’en est-il de sa population ? Population & Sociétés 608 (2) 1-4. 10.3917/popsoc.608.0001.