Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.

The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.

Models, tools, datasets

Population

POPULATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROJECTIONS (SSP 2023)

Population of the world

Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.0 (WCDE)

Projects

Hand die durch die Wand bricht

Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)

Human Tracks

Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)

People figurines on a map of Western Europe

Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)

Unrecognizable male business manager raising artificial intelligence above a work team. Technology concept for AI, machine and deep learning, robolution, digital transformation of the workforce.

Link4Skills (Link4Skills)

Staff

Moradhvaj Moradhvaj profile picture

Moradhvaj Moradhvaj

Guest Research Scholar (MDM)

Inge Spiegeler Castaneda profile picture

Inge Spiegeler Castaneda

Researcher (MDM)

Jakob Napiontek profile picture

Jakob Napiontek

Research Assistant (MDM)

Anne Goujon profile picture

Anne Goujon

Program Director and Principal Research Scholar (POPJUS); Acting Research Group Leader and Principal Research Scholar (MDM)

News

War in Ukraine. Little girl on mom`s shoulder. Refugees from the evacuation train from Mariupol, Berdyansk, Kryvyi Rih

10 July 2024

Latest European Demographic Data Sheet highlights lasting impact of war and migration

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent displacement of millions of people will have a significant impact on the country’s long-term population structure. Researchers from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, IIASA, and the University of Vienna are forecasting a substantial population decline of 21-31% by 2052.
SSP Human Core background

07 March 2024

Populations of the future: updated tool helps to visualize projections

New projections of population and human capital provide insights into what our future could look like all the way until the year 2100 under different developmental scenarios. The findings are presented in datasets compiled by IIASA scientists in partnership with the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.
SAS visit

27 February 2024

Slovak delegation from the Institute of Economic Research visits IIASA

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) hosted a delegation from the Institute of Economic Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS). The visit aimed at fostering collaboration and in-depth discussions on key economic models and research areas.

Events

Focus

Europe population

24 June 2024

Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data

IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.

A crowd of wooden figures surrounded by measuring tape representing information statistics, measurement of the number, trends of population growth.

18 June 2024

Human capital growth persists with upcoming population decline

The world's population has surged from 1 billion in 1800 to just above 8 billion today, but demographers predict this growth will halt by the end of the 21st century. IIASA researcher Guillaume Marois explains how a new human capital-weighted population metric is reshaping our understanding of global population dynamics and economic potential.