Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
24 January 2023
28 September 2022
08 July 2022
28 November 2022
11 July 2022
24 June 2020
González-Leonardo, M., Newsham, N., & Rowe, F. (2023). Understanding Population Decline Trajectories in Spain using Sequence Analysis. Geographical Analysis 10.1111/gean.12357.
González-Leonardo, M., Potančoková, M. , Yildiz, D. , & Rowe, F. (2023). Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries. PLOS ONE 18 (1) e0280324. 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324.
Gonzalez-Leonardo, M., Rowe, F., & Fresolone-Caparrós, A. (2022). Rural revival? The rise in internal migration to rural areas during the COVID-19 pandemic. Who moved and where? Journal of Rural Studies 96 332-342. 10.1016/j.jrurstud.2022.11.006.
Özdemir, C., Reiter, C. , Yildiz, D. , & Goujon, A. (2022). Projections of adult skills and the effect of COVID-19. PLoS ONE 17 (11) e0277113. 10.1371/journal.pone.0277113.
Gonzalez-Leonardo, M. & Spijker, J. (2022). The impact of Covid-19 on demographic components in Spain, 2020–31: A scenario approach. Population Studies 1-17. 10.1080/00324728.2022.2138521.