© Foto 79756601 © Uberxoma | Dreamstime.com
Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Models, tools, datasets
POPULATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROJECTIONS (SSP 2023)
Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.0 (WCDE)
Projects
Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)
Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)
Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)
Link4Skills (Link4Skills)
Staff
Orlando Olaya Bucaro
Researcher (MDM, MIG)
Claudius Ströhle
Researcher (MDM)
Guillaume Marois
Research Scholar (MDM)
Inge Spiegeler Castaneda
Researcher (MDM)
News
10 July 2024
Latest European Demographic Data Sheet highlights lasting impact of war and migration
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent displacement of millions of people will have a significant impact on the country’s long-term population structure. Researchers from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, IIASA, and the University of Vienna are forecasting a substantial population decline of 21-31% by 2052.
07 March 2024
Populations of the future: updated tool helps to visualize projections
New projections of population and human capital provide insights into what our future could look like all the way until the year 2100 under different developmental scenarios. The findings are presented in datasets compiled by IIASA scientists in partnership with the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital.
27 February 2024
Slovak delegation from the Institute of Economic Research visits IIASA
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) hosted a delegation from the Institute of Economic Research of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SAS). The visit aimed at fostering collaboration and in-depth discussions on key economic models and research areas.
Events
Kathmandu, Nepal
IIASA at the 6th APA Conference 2024
Vienna, Austria and online
Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024-Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects
Focus
11 November 2024
Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood
Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.
24 June 2024
Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data
IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Publications
Dorflinger, M., Potančoková, M. , & Marois, G. (2024). The potential impact of international migration on prospective population ageing in Asian countries. Asian Population Studies 1-21. 10.1080/17441730.2024.2436201. Ma, J., Wu, J., & Marois, G. (2024). Socioeconomic inequalities in depression and the role of job conditions in China. Frontiers in Public Health 12 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1464187. Belmin, C., Pichler, P.-P., Marois, G. , Pachauri, S. , & Weisz, H. (2024). The energy-population dividend: Evidence from energy-specific population projections. Environmental Research Letters 10.1088/1748-9326/ad9850. (In Press) Chapagain, D., Bharati, L., Mechler, R. , K.C., S., Pflug, G. , & Borgemeister, C. (2024). Understanding the role of climate change in disaster mortality: Empirical evidence from Nepal. Climate Risk Management 46 e100669. 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100669. Pradhan, P., Weitz, N., Daioglou, V., Abrahão, G.M., Allen, C., Ambrósio, G., Arp, F., Asif, F., Bennich, T., Benton, T.G., Biermann, F., Cao, M., Carlsen, H., Chen, F., Chen, M., Daams, M.N., Dawes, J.H.P., Dhakal, S., Gilmore, E., Miguel, L.J., Hubacek, K., Hu, Y., Jager, W., K.C., S., Kearney, N.M., Khot, U.A., Kluck, T., Kulkarni, S., Leininger, J., Li, C., Li, J., Lotze-Campen, H., Parrado-Hernando, G., Pedercini, M., Phuyal, R.K., Prell, C., Rijal, A., Schweizer, V., Sijtsma, F.J., Soergel, B., Spittler, N., van Vuuren, D., Warchold, A., Weber, E., Wicke, B., Widerberg, O., Wilts, R., Wingens, C., Wu, C., Xing, Q., Yan, J., Yuan, Z., Zhou, X., & Zimm, C. (2024). Three foci at the science-policy interface for systemic Sustainable Development Goal acceleration. Nature Communications 15 (1) e8600. 10.1038/s41467-024-52926-x.