Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Publications
Kreyenfeld, M., di Lego, V.G., Permanyer, I., Potančoková, M. , & Sanchez-Romero, M. (2025). Population inequality matters. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025 (1) 1-14. 10.1553/p-5eef-bmjp.
Marois, G. , Potančoková, M. , Bezat, A., & Crespo Cuaresma, J. (2026). Projecting Labour Market Imbalances and Skill Mismatch Under Demographic Change in the EU. European Journal of Population 42 e4. 10.1007/s10680-025-09758-2.
Lutz, W. (2025). Three Demographic Theories with Predictive Power: Demographic Metabolism, Demographic Transition, and Demographic Dividend. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-25-004
Models, tools, datasets
Projects
Staff
News
18 May 2026
African Human Capital Data Sheet 2026
09 April 2026
Skills are replacing age-based labor supply as the engine of economies
02 March 2026
Is low fertility really an economic threat?
Events
Focus
11 November 2024
Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood
Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.
24 June 2024
Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data
IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Publications
Eker, S. , Reiter, C. , Liu, Q., Kuhn, M., & Lutz, W. (2026). Wellbeing cost of carbon. Global Sustainability 9 e1. 10.1017/sus.2025.10042.
Liu, K., Wang, R., Tukker, A., K.C., S., & Hoekstra, R. (2026). Projecting temperature-related mortality impacts at urban scale under climate scenarios: A methodological review. Sustainable Cities and Society 145 e107476. 10.1016/j.scs.2026.107476.
Ghimire, D.R. & K.C., S. (2026). Beyond education and contraceptive use: do caste, ethnicity, and religion influence fertility behaviour in Nepal? Evidence from six rounds of DHS. BMC Women's Health 10.1186/s12905-026-04524-w. (In Press)
Prettner, K., Zhang, J., Bloom, D.E., Chen, S., & Lutz, W. (2026). GDP alone cannot measure human progress and well-being. Nature Health 10.1038/s44360-026-00137-7. (In Press)
Tamburini, A., Wiśniowski, A., & Yildiz, D. (2026). Bayesian multidimensional mortality reconstruction. Demographic Research 54 877-934. 10.4054/DemRes.2026.54.28.