Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.

The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.

Publications

Models, tools, datasets

Population

Population and Human Capital Projections (SSP 2023)

Population of the world

Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.0 (WCDE)

Projects

People figurines on a map of Western Europe

Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)

Unrecognizable male business manager raising artificial intelligence above a work team. Technology concept for AI, machine and deep learning, robolution, digital transformation of the workforce.

Link4Skills (Link4Skills)

Schoolgirl reading at her desk in elementary school lesson

Human Capital for Sustainable Development: A Focus on Africa and Coastal Regions (supported by the Yidan Prize project funds)

A digital map of Africa with glowing lights, showcasing the continent s connections.

Demographically Coherent Education and Literacy Statistics (EduCohorts)

Staff

Michaela Potancokova profile picture

Michaela Potancokova

Senior Research Scholar (MDM)

Katja Scherbov profile picture

Katja Scherbov

Program and Project Officer (POPJUS, MDM, H2A, MIG)

Andrea Tamburini profile picture

Andrea Tamburini

Researcher (MDM, MIG)

Orlando Olaya Bucaro profile picture

Orlando Olaya Bucaro

Researcher (MDM)

News

Children posing in Madagascar

18 May 2026

African Human Capital Data Sheet 2026

The African Human Capital Data Sheet 2026: Past Trends, Skills, and Future Pathways presents new evidence on population trends by level of education, skills, and demographic transitions across the African continent.
Female chinese worker testing production at line conveyor in china factory manufacturing

09 April 2026

Skills are replacing age-based labor supply as the engine of economies

As global population aging advances and countries face shrinking workforces, a new study focusing on China by IIASA researchers and colleagues from Nanjing University reveals how economic growth can persist despite these changes in age structures.
Low fertility

02 March 2026

Is low fertility really an economic threat?

In a new commentary, two deeply rooted assumptions in global demographic debates are challenged: that fertility will rebound as societies develop, and that “replacement-level fertility” is an ideal to be pursued. Drawing on the latest evidence, the authors show that neither view is supported by available data and argue that persistently low fertility can be sustainable and even economically desirable.

Events

Focus

Older mother hugging her little girl on couch in livingroom

11 November 2024

Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood

Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.

Europe population

24 June 2024

Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data

IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.