Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.

The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.

Publications

Models, tools, datasets

Population

Population and Human Capital Projections (SSP 2023)

Population of the world

Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.0 (WCDE)

Projects

People figurines on a map of Western Europe

Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)

Unrecognizable male business manager raising artificial intelligence above a work team. Technology concept for AI, machine and deep learning, robolution, digital transformation of the workforce.

Link4Skills (Link4Skills)

Schoolgirl reading at her desk in elementary school lesson

Human Capital for Sustainable Development: A Focus on Africa and Coastal Regions (supported by the Yidan Prize project funds)

A digital map of Africa with glowing lights, showcasing the continent s connections.

Demographically Coherent Education and Literacy Statistics (EduCohorts)

Staff

Placeholder, because no staff image is available

Itza Olguin Zuniga

Guest Researcher (MDM)

Stefanie Andruchowitz profile picture

Stefanie Andruchowitz

Project Officer (MDM)

Guillaume Marois profile picture

Guillaume Marois

Senior Research Scholar (MDM)

Wolfgang Lutz profile picture

Wolfgang Lutz

IIASA Sherpa for Asia (DG); Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar (MDM)

News

Group of young African women standing on a road

14 September 2026

Can a warming climate put women at greater risk?

Unusually warm periods could have a link to an increased risk of intimate partner violence against women, according to a new IIASA-led study covering 31 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The findings highlight how rising temperatures may compound existing risks of violence, with effects varying between demographic groups.
WADE

10 September 2026

World Aging Data Explorer (WADE) on UNESCO’s Digital Innovation Hub

Developed by Sergei Schebov at IIASA’s Population and Just Societies Program (POPJUS), the World Aging Data Explorer (WADE) is featured on UNESCO’s Digital Innovation Hub.
Immigration

07 September 2026

More than numbers: first global dataset shows who is immigrating

As countries compete for skilled workers and grapple with aging populations and labor shortages, understanding who is moving across borders is increasingly important. A new study provides the first global dataset of immigration composition disaggregated simultaneously by age, sex, and educational attainment, offering a new basis for tracking brain gain and brain drain and improving population projections.

Events

Focus

Pedestrians at Shibuya Crossing in Tokyo, Japan
Annual Report 2025

Annual Report 2025: Population and Just Societies Program Highlights

How can societies adapt to profound demographic, environmental, and social change while ensuring that no one is left behind? In 2025, the Population and Just Societies Program generated new evidence on aging, migration, labor markets, climate vulnerability, and the policies needed to build more inclusive and resilient societies. 
Older mother hugging her little girl on couch in livingroom

11 November 2024

Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood

Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.

Publications