Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)

The overarching aim of this project was to produce comprehensive, multi-perspective, and robust quantitative migration scenarios to support various areas of European migration policy, based on cutting-edge developments in conceptualising, explaining, estimating, and forecasting migration.

Funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 funding scheme, this three-year project coordinated by Dr Jakub Bijak from the University of Southampton consists of 7 partners from 5 European countries and involves experts from the areas of demography and economy.

Michaela Potancokova and Guillaume Marois were the IIASA partners in this project. Both researchers have developed QuantMig-Mic microsimulation model in the framework of the previous IIASA-JRC Centre of Expertise on Population and Migration (CEPAM). The QuantMig migration scenarios complement those based on age, gender and education developed within the new JRC-IIASA CEPAM initiative .

The objective of QuantMig was to produce comprehensive, multi-perspective and robust quantitative migration scenarios to support many different areas of European migration policy. The project advanced the methodology of scenario generation whilst being firmly grounded in the cutting-edge developments in conceptualizing, explaining, estimating and forecasting migration.

In particular, the project made important contributions to understanding qualitative and conceptual foundations of migration flows into, out of, and within Europe. Particular focus was on the mobility of third-country nationals and the decision-making of migrants. The project has also produced harmonized estimates of migration flows between European countries and between those countries and world regions including uncertainty measures. We went beyond commonly used approaches to migration scenarios by developing model-based quantitative scenarios of high migration events into Europe which are based on statistical theory of rare events. Rigorous and innovative methods were applied to creating interactive simulation models, describing scenario uncertainty, and providing early warnings.

The unique features of QuantMig include building a comprehensive knowledge base on migration flows and their drivers, far beyond the state of the art. The strong quantitative slant of the project improved migration data and analytical methods, together with innovative assessment of their quality and uncertainty, in line with the current European policy priorities. The project remains fully relevant to the work programme, addressing all specific areas of the call.

Put together by a unique consortium of leading European institutions with excellence in demography and migration, in continuous dialogue with key users and stakeholders, QuantMig will deliver a range of directly applicable tools for policy support. The project outputs include open data and models, accessible repositories of migration data and policies as well as interactive tools and visualizations all available at the QuantMig webpage. Migration scenarios and microsimulations developed at IIASA are available from the QuantMig Migration Scenarios Explorer and a Zenodo repository. Scientifically sound simulations for migration policy and planning will ensure significant impact and a lasting legacy of the project.

Project Team

Michaela Potancokova (Principal Investigator)
Guillaume Marois
Miguel Gonzalez-Leonardo

Research partners

University of Southampton (SOTON), United Kingdom, Coordinator
Donau Universitaet Krems, Austria
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR), Germany
Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut (NIDI), Netherlands
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Norway
University of Oslo, Norway

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 870299. Project Name: Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy, QuantMig.

Publications

Bijak, J., Czaika, M., Potančoková, M. , & de Vilhena, D.V. (2024). New perspectives for migration foresight and preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project. Migration Policy Practice XIII (1) 34-40.

Potančoková, M. , Marois, G. , & González-Leonardo, M. (2023). Discussion paper: Demographic and labour force implications of high immigration events scenarios. IIASA Report. Laxenburg: IIASA

Potančoková, M. , Marois, G. , & Bijak, J. (2023). High-Migration Events and Future Labour Force in Europe. Brief No. 39. Max Planck Society for the Advancement of Science on behalf of the collaborative network ‘Population Europe’ , Berlin, Germany.

Bijak, J., de Vilhena, D.V., & Potančoková, M. (2023). White Paper on Migration Uncertainty: Towards Foresight and Preparedness. Population Europe , Berlin, Germany.

González-Leonardo, M., Potančoková, M. , Yildiz, D. , & Rowe, F. (2023). Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on immigration in receiving high-income countries. PLOS ONE 18 (1) e0280324. 10.1371/journal.pone.0280324.

Deliverables

Marois, G. and Potančoková, M. (2022) QuantMig-mic microsimulation tool. QuantMig Project Deliverable D8.1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria. Available at: http://quantmig.eu/res/files/QuantMig_IIASA_Deliverable%20D8.1%20v1.1.pdf

Marois, G., Potančoková, M., González-Leonardo, M. (2023) QuantMig-Mic microsimulation population projection model. QuantMig Project Deliverable D8.2. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria. Available at: http://quantmig.eu/res/files/QuantMig_IIASA_Deliverable%20D8.2_forsubmission_21-07-2023_corr.pdf

See more project reports