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Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Models, tools, datasets
Projects
Staff
News
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25 February 2025
Master Programme "Global Demography" at the University of Vienna
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10 July 2024
Latest European Demographic Data Sheet highlights lasting impact of war and migration
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07 March 2024
Populations of the future: updated tool helps to visualize projections
Events
Vienna, Austria and online
Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024-Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects
Focus
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11 November 2024
Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood
Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.
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24 June 2024
Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data
IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.
Publications
KC, A., Abbasi-Shavazi, M., Eigelaar-Meets, I., Lijadi, A.A., Reiter, C. , Striessnig, E. , & Lutz, W. (2025). Assessing sustainable wellbeing in Africa through “Years of Good Life”. Environmental Development 54 e101140. 10.1016/j.envdev.2025.101140. Chapagain, D., Hochrainer-Stigler, S., Velev, S., Keating, A., & Mechler, R. (2025). Realized Resilience After Community Flood Events: A Global Empirical Study. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 118 e105246. 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105246. Dorflinger, M., Potančoková, M. , & Marois, G. (2024). The potential impact of international migration on prospective population ageing in Asian countries. Asian Population Studies 1-21. 10.1080/17441730.2024.2436201. Ma, J., Wu, J., & Marois, G. (2024). Socioeconomic inequalities in depression and the role of job conditions in China. Frontiers in Public Health 12 10.3389/fpubh.2024.1464187. Belmin, C., Pichler, P.-P., Marois, G. , Pachauri, S. , & Weisz, H. (2024). The energy-population dividend: Evidence from energy-specific population projections. Environmental Research Letters 20 e014047. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad9850.