Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.

The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.

Models, tools, datasets

Population

POPULATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROJECTIONS (SSP 2023)

Population of the world

Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.0 (WCDE)

Projects

Hand die durch die Wand bricht

Future Migration Scenarios for Europe (FUME)

Human Tracks

Quantifying Migration Scenarios for Better Policy (QuantMig)

People figurines on a map of Western Europe

Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)

Unrecognizable male business manager raising artificial intelligence above a work team. Technology concept for AI, machine and deep learning, robolution, digital transformation of the workforce.

Link4Skills (Link4Skills)

Staff

Wolfgang Lutz profile picture

Wolfgang Lutz

IIASA Sherpa for Asia (DG); Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar (MDM)

Placeholder, because no staff image is available

Bernhard Rengs

Guest Research Scholar (MDM)

Moradhvaj Moradhvaj profile picture

Moradhvaj Moradhvaj

Guest Research Scholar (MDM)

Orlando Olaya Bucaro profile picture

Orlando Olaya Bucaro

Researcher (MDM, MIG)

News

Light shining through the canopy in a forest

08 April 2025

IIASA Director General supports ambitious Austrian tree-planting initiative

A new climate initiative launched in Vorarlberg, Austria, aims to plant 50 trees for every child born in the region. The initiative, which will run under the patronage of IIASA Director General Hans Joachim (John) Schellnhuber, was introduced on 3 April in Rankweil.
WIC conference

08 April 2025

Call for Submissions: Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2025

IIASA researchers are part of the organizing team for the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2025 on 'Demographic Perspectives on Migration in the 21st Century,' which will take place from 19–21 November 2025 at the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, Austria.
VYPR

11 March 2025

Climate Change and Migration in the 2024 Vienna Yearbook of Population Research

IIASA researchers have made significant contributions to the newly released Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2024 edited by Roman Hoffmann and colleagues.

Focus

Older mother hugging her little girl on couch in livingroom

11 November 2024

Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood

Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.

Europe population

24 June 2024

Predicting EU migration trends: merging traditional and social media data

IIASA researchers Dilek Yildiz and Guy Abel highlight the benefits of a new statistical model that combines traditional data sources like the census with real-time Facebook data to estimate EU migrant populations, offering valuable insights for policymakers.