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Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Publications
Kreyenfeld, M., di Lego, V.G., Permanyer, I., Potančoková, M. , & Sanchez-Romero, M. (2025). Population inequality matters. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 2025 (1) 1-14. 10.1553/p-5eef-bmjp.
Marois, G. , Potančoková, M. , Bezat, A., & Crespo Cuaresma, J. (2026). Projecting Labour Market Imbalances and Skill Mismatch Under Demographic Change in the EU. European Journal of Population 42 e4. 10.1007/s10680-025-09758-2.
Lutz, W. (2025). Three Demographic Theories with Predictive Power: Demographic Metabolism, Demographic Transition, and Demographic Dividend. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-25-004
Models, tools, datasets
Population and Human Capital Projections (SSP 2023)
Wittgenstein Centre Human Capital Data & Graphic Explorer Version 3.3 (WCDE)
Projects
Policy REcommendations to Maximise the beneficial Impact of Unexplored Mobilities in and beyond the European Union (PREMIUM_EU)
Link4Skills (Link4Skills)
Human Capital for Sustainable Development: A Focus on Africa and Coastal Regions (supported by the Yidan Prize project funds)
Demographically Coherent Education and Literacy Statistics (EduCohorts)
Staff
Wolfgang Lutz
IIASA Sherpa for Asia (DG); Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar (MDM)
Claudia Reiter
Guest Research Scholar (MDM)
Ying’an Wang
Guest Senior Research Scholar (MDM)
Gladys Shamirian
Administrative Assistant for Research Program (POPJUS, MDM, H2A, MIG, EQU)
News
11 November 2026
New international panel on AI and digital innovation
IIASA researcher Dilek Yildiz will serve on the steering committee of a new international scientific panel exploring how artificial intelligence (AI), digital technologies, and emerging data sources are transforming demographic research and our understanding of population change.
09 November 2026
From Barbados to London: Advancing science diplomacy and international cooperation
IIASA Science Diplomacy Director and Head of Communications and External Relations Susie Kitchens led a delegation to Barbados to explore opportunities for scientific collaboration in support of the country's economic transformation ambitions. The visit was followed by high-level engagements in London aimed at strengthening international research partnerships and IIASA's ties with UK institutions.
05 November 2026
What will society look like after the world's population hits its peak?
How will populations around the world change over the next three centuries, and what will those changes mean for future societies? In a new study, IIASA researcher Samir KC explores how populations and human capital across 200 countries and territories could evolve in the years leading up to 2300.
Events
Vienna, Austria
On sense and nonsense of end-of-the-world predictions
Hangzhou, China
A shared agenda for population ageing
Shanghai University
Workshop: Rethinking Urbanization in Asia
Focus
Annual Report 2025
Annual Report 2025: Population and Just Societies Program Highlights
How can societies adapt to profound demographic, environmental, and social change while ensuring that no one is left behind? In 2025, the Population and Just Societies Program generated new evidence on aging, migration, labor markets, climate vulnerability, and the policies needed to build more inclusive and resilient societies.
11 November 2024
Why are people waiting longer to start a family? Exploring the trends, challenges, and choices behind delayed parenthood
Ahead of the Wittgenstein Centre Conference 2024 on Delayed Reproduction: Challenges and Prospects, which is set to take place from 21-22 November, researchers from the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program, the Vienna Institute of Demography, and the University of Vienna look into the shifting trends, drivers, and consequences of delayed parenthood.
Publications
Eker, S. , Reiter, C. , Liu, Q., Kuhn, M., & Lutz, W. (2026). Wellbeing cost of carbon. Global Sustainability 9 e1. 10.1017/sus.2025.10042.
Peisker, J. , Hoffmann, R., Baschieri, A., Udeh, C., & Striessnig, E. (2026). Intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa under climate change and socioeconomic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 101 e103224. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103224.
Green, C., Andrijevic, M. , Hess, J.J., Pachauri, S. , Sellers, S., van Ruijven, B. , Ebi, K.L, Ahamad, F., Åström, C., Aunan, K., Bi, P., Biesbroek, R., Borghi, J. , Bowen, K., Caminade, C., Carter, T.R., Galvao, L.A.C., Cissé, G., Dasgupta, S., de Sherbinin, A., Dimitrova, A., Fann, N., Frieler, K., Fuglestvedt, J., Ghosh, S., Gordon-Strachan, G., Guo, Y., Guttikunda, S., Hilly, J., Hoffmann, R., K.C., S., Kiesewetter, G. , Kim, H., Kone, B., Lee, W., Lipsanen, A., Lloyd, S.J., Lotze-Campen, H., Lwasa, S., McGregor, G., McLeman, R., Morse, A., Murray, K.A., Ogden, N.H., Palmeiro-Silva, Y., Patwardhan, A., Pineo, H., Prahhakaran, P., Riahi, K. , Ryan, S.J., Schweizer, V., Semenza, J.C., Thiam, S., Totin, E., Valdivia, R.O., & van Vuuren, D. (2026). Navigating global health futures under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. The Lancet Planetary Health e101514. 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101514.
Lutz, W. & Marois, G. (2026). China, India, and the limits of population size as demographic advantage. Asian Population Studies 1-3. 10.1080/17441730.2026.2682942.
Paprotny, D., Bondarenko, M., Noi, E., Tatem, A.J., Frieler, K., Sauer, I., K.C., S., Dellink, R., Kikstra, J.S. , & Hawker, L. (2026). Direct human forcing for earth system and climate impact modelling under CMIP7 scenarios. EGUsphere [preprint] 10.5194/egusphere-2026-5045. (Submitted)