The ICI group focuses on advancing the understanding of physical climate impacts and risks in a scenario context, and their societal and economic consequences.

Based on innovative approaches to climate modeling and tool development, this contributes to the work of the Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Program, placing an emphasis on integrating physical climate risks into modeling and scenario building activities.

The work of the ICI focuses on three key objectives:

  1. Improving the understanding of biophysical and economic climate impacts and risks with particular focus on extreme events, climate overshoot, tipping elements, and an enhanced integration of climate impact drivers along the climate impact chain. 
  2. Advancing frameworks for climate resilient development pathways. This includes the development and application of novel methodologies for an integrated assessment of climate impacts, adaptation, and mitigation, including stress testing. 
  3. Developing an interdisciplinary research agenda of linking emissions to climate damages and advancing from questions of climate attribution to climate accountability for damages. 

In its pursuit of a transformative approach to climate impact research, the ICI group, places particular emphasis on agile methodologies for the exploration of various scenarios and the assessment of their respective key risks. These efforts aim to provide for a step-change towards closing the gaps between emission scenarios, climate impacts and risks, and adaptation and loss and damage responses. 

Compound risks and climate overshoot

One of the major focus areas of the ICI group centers around tail risks and compound events. It is these tail and compound risks that drive both the economic and the non-economic societal damages, presenting a threat to overall societal stability. The ICI group advances the understanding of critical thresholds of socio-ecological systems, the limits to adaptation, and societal response capacities across a range of climate impacts. Integrating this information into a dynamic scenario context will foster a better understanding of climate resilient development pathways. 

Specific attention is given to studying climate impact (ir)reversibility under climate overshoot scenarios. In this context, the ICI will also focus on Earth System responses and potential tipping elements.

From climate attribution to accountability

Moving beyond the traditional analytical focus on climate attribution (to climate emissions), the ICI group operationalizes the concept of climate accountability. Interdisciplinary approaches that blend scientific inquiry with legal and ethical considerations will operationalize legal principles to trace climate impact along the impacts chain. This approach does not only solidify the scientific basis for climate accountability, but also paves the way for more effective and equitable policy interventions. 

Themes

Extreme Weather and Climate Dynamics

Staff

Alexander Nauels profile picture

Alexander Nauels

Senior Research Scholar (ICI)

Tessa Möller profile picture

Tessa Möller

Researcher (ICI)

Niklas Schwind profile picture

Niklas Schwind

Researcher (ICI)

Inga Menke profile picture

Inga Menke

Senior Research Scholar (ICI)

News

SPARCCLE Workshop - Brussels

20 January 2025

SPARCCLE Workshop Gathers EU Policymakers for Policy Feedback and Insights

From 3rd to 4th December 2024, the SPARCCLE consortium hosted a workshop in Brussels, bringing together external stakeholders and EU policymakers, including representatives from CINEA, DG ENER, and DG HERA. This collaborative event provided a platform for feedback on EU adaptation and mitigation policy analysis. It also marked the beginning of SPARCCLE’s stress test co-development process, allowing participants to contribute valuable input toward the design of the SPARCCLE climate stress test scenarios.
Colorful satellite weather map depicting increased temperatures across Europe.

26 November 2024

Mapping the world's climate danger zones

With 2024 on track to be declared the hottest on record, scientists from IIASA and Columbia University have noticed that specific regions are consistently more affected by extreme temperatures. A new study provides the first worldwide map of these regional climate danger zones.
Kai Kornhuber

22 November 2024

Kai Kornhuber receives Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award from EGU

IIASA researcher Kai Kornhuber will be honored with the Outstanding Early Career Scientist Award in the Climate: Past, Present & Future Division for his achievements in advancing climate science.

Focus

In Solidarity for a Green World. Climate change conference slogan concept background.

07 November 2024

COP29 in Baku is a Climate Finance COP: It’s about justice

At the COP in Baku, Azerbaijan, nation states must decide on a new climate finance regime, that will take effect from 2025. Studies show that by 2030, a sixfold increase in international financing is needed globally, for the needed mitigation investments alone. As tensions rise over who should pay, it will be difficult to achieve new and fair targets. Success is crucial to keep the Paris Agreement within reach.

Melting of glaciers and the Greenland ice sheet

04 November 2024

Overshooting 1.5°C is risky – that’s why we need to hedge our bets

In a new article published on The Conversation, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Gurav Ganti, and Joeri Rogelj discuss the urgent need to accelerate global emissions reductions to limit global warming to 1.5°C, cautioning against reliance on overshoot scenarios that assume temporary warming above 1.5°C, which may lead to irreversible climate impacts.