The EDC theme embraces economic behaviors under the risk of large disruptive (regime changing) shocks, including climate tipping points, eco-system breakdown, pandemic shocks, and disruptive technological or political changes.

The hallmark of the research undertaken under the auspices of the EDC theme is that it studies the nexus of pre-shock and post-shock behaviors within a coherent framework. Pre-shock behaviors include prevention and precaution, for example, through the build-up of adaptive capacity, while post-shock behaviors include adaptation and the potential to choose different (and more sustainable/resilient) pathways of recovery. Studies typically involve modeling and empirical applications.

Selected Publications

Chen, S., Prettner, K., Kuhn, M., & Bloom, D.E. (2021). The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach. The Journal of the Economics of Ageing 20 e100328. 10.1016/j.jeoa.2021.100328.

Chen, S., Prettner, K., Kuhn, M., Geldsetzer, P., Wang, C., Bärnighausen, T., & Bloom, D.E. (2021). Climate and the spread of COVID-19. Scientific Reports 11 (1) e9042. 10.1038/s41598-021-87692-z.

Wrzaczek, S. (2021). An OLG Differential Game of Pollution Control with the Risk of a Catastrophic Climate Change. International Game Theory Review 10.1142/S0219198922500025. (In Press)

Caulkins, J.P., Grass, D., Feichtinger, G., Hartl, R.F., Kort, P.M., Prskawetz, A., Seidl, A., & Wrzaczek, S. (2021). The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19. Journal of Mathematical Economics 93 e102489. 10.1016/j.jmateco.2021.102489.

All Program Publications