IIASA at AGU24 in Washington

Drivers of the Speed of Technology Diffusion and Implications for Carbon Dioxide Removal Scale Up

Elina Brutschin and Matthew Gidden

Abstract: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and increasing community resilience to climate change require large-scale technology transitions, including the rapid diffusion of emerging technologies such as carbon dioxide removal methods. How fast these transitions can replace polluting technologies and encourage adoption of clean technologies is uncertain and depends on a wide range of factors. Studying historical trends in technology adoption allows us to learn from the past about what may be possible, including technology and country characteristics that have impacted technology growth speeds in the past. In this study, we analyze the effect of technology and country characteristics on the diffusion speed of a broad set of 117 technologies across 228 countries using the Historical Adoption of Technologies (HATCH) dataset. We find large heterogeneity in growth rates. Within this dispersion we see that newer technologies have grown faster, along with those that are smaller, less materially intensive, and have shorter lifetimes. Democracies have faster technology diffusion, but that impact differs across types of technologies. These findings indicate that the growth of complex, large technologies may require more policy support to grow in order to meet climate goals; and conversely that public support of smaller technologies may deliver public benefits more quickly. This is relevant to many CDR methods, which are typically large and complex.

Understanding network configurations that promote system robustness

Brian D. Fath

Abstract: Resistance, resilience, regeneration, and robustness are all terms that entered the lexicon to describe systems response to disturbance. While there continues to be debate on the precise meaning of the terms, generally one thinks of a resistance as a rejection to change, resilience its ability to rebound, and regeneration a recall of self-organizing forces that rebuilds the systems following a disturbance. Robustness has emerged in the ecological literature to provide a quantitative measure of the tradeoff between the redundancy and efficiency of a system. Specifically, using information-based network theory, it was observed that ecosystems, behind the weight of evolutionary time and processes, have converged to a configuration that exhibits about 2/3 redundancy and 1/3 efficiency. This space has been called the “window of vitality” to mark the life characteristics at play that support this result. Recent applications of the robustness approach to socio-ecological systems (e.g., urban metabolism, trade networks, economic networks, water networks), has revealed a different pattern that typically falls to the redundant side of the optimum. This research aligns with an effort to “rewire” socio-economic systems according to ecological patterns as a test of eco-mimcry principles. This presentation reviews recent robustness research and provides new results for an island metabolism case study.

Agricultural monitoring from space

From IIASA's Novel Data Ecosystems for Sustainability (NODES) research group, Benjamin Goffin, together with Juan Carlos Laso Bayas, Ian McCallum, and Fernando Orduña-Cabrera, will present Agricultural monitoring from the International Space Station: linking ECOSTRESS at different overpass times to actual field conditions.

Exploring air quality issues in Asia

Younha Kim will participate online as co-author of four abstracts:

1. AQNEA: Future Air Quality in Northeast Asia under Carbon Neutrality
2. Analysis of Future Clean Air in Northeast Asia under Carbon Neutrality using the GUIDE-Global Model
3. ASIA-AQ Emissions: A Comprehensive Northeast Asian Emissions Inventory in Support of the NASA/NIER ASIA-AQ Mission
4. Evaluation of Anthropogenic VOC Chemical Speciation Profiles for Improved Emissions Inventory in Korea

Showcasing advancements in modeling

Andre Nakhavali will be presenting the latest IIASA modeling advancements.

Energy-water-land interactions under climate change

Amanda Palazzo will present in a session focused on Multisector Dynamics: Energy-Water-Land Interactions at Multiple Scales under a Changing Climate.

As populations grow and incomes rise, the demand for food, fiber, and bioenergy will increase. Regions that share natural resources, especially those spanning multiple countries, face significant challenges in achieving sustainable economic development. Climate change will likely worsen these challenges. Policymakers may need to adjust current policies, investments, and adaptation strategies to ensure a reliable and sustainable supply of water, food, and energy.

In this regard Palazzo and her colleagues have done extensive research on assessing sustainable development pathways for water, food, and energy security in a transboundary river basin. The results have also been published in an IIASA Policy Brief.

At AGU, Palazzo will present the work from the Assessing Climate Change Risk in Europe (ACCREU) research project where IIASA examines the integrated impacts of climate on the water and land sectors with links to bioenergy through forests for the EU.

Social science and justice in climate research

Caroline Zimm is co-organizing the session GC026 - Advancing social science and justice considerations in climate research. Achieving climate goals can promote inclusive growth or exacerbate inequities, contingent on means and approaches. Just and rapid energy transitions demand illuminating and addressing conflicts through inter- and trans-disciplinary collaboration and improved modeling that integrates social science insights. This session aims to build a community and foster dialogue by blending integrated modeling with social science on pathways to net-zero emissions and Sustainable Development Goals. We invite papers exploring the intersection of social and behavioral sciences, systems design, and energy-climate policy. Celebrating a diversity of approaches and perspectives, we highlight papers promoting cross-disciplinary translation to enhance credibility and salience of energy-climate models. Emphases include:

• analyzing interactions of energy transitions with social systems,
• modeling diverse socio-political futures outside of present configurations,
• new modeling grounded in philosophical theory,
• tools/ heuristics navigating competing justice framings, highlighting hitherto overlooked justice considerations,
• Multi-model comparisons and studies identifying modeling contributions for social sciences