Can a warming climate put women at greater risk?

The study, published in Global Environmental Change, brought together researchers from institutions in Austria, New Zealand, and South Africa. It draws on data from 61 Demographic and Health Surveys conducted between 2003 and 2024 among women aged 15 to 49 across sub-Saharan Africa. The researchers examined the relationship between unusually warm conditions and reported violence, and explored how the number and share of women affected could change by 2050 under different climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

The results indicate that unusually warm conditions increase the risk of intimate partner violence, particularly emotional and physical violence. The researchers found no clear evidence of an effect on sexual violence.

“Our findings suggest that unusually warm conditions can add to existing risks of intimate partner violence, but temperature is only one part of a much more complex picture,” explains lead author Jonas Peisker, a researcher in the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program. “Climate change should therefore be understood as a risk multiplier rather than a primary cause of violence.”

“The effects were particularly pronounced among women living in rural areas and those with a primary level of education or less. Women in these groups may have fewer resources and opportunities to leave harmful relationships, although our study does not establish why these groups are more affected,” adds corresponding author Erich Striessnig, a researcher jointly associated with IIASA and the University of Vienna's Department of Demography.

Other social and economic factors were also associated with violence. Higher education of both partners and greater economic resources were linked to lower risk, while frequent alcohol consumption by partners was among the strongest risk factors identified. The researchers also found that employed women reported higher rates of intimate partner violence, a finding that could be consistent with backlash against women’s growing independence, although other explanations cannot be ruled out.

Looking towards mid-century, the study suggests that socioeconomic and demographic development could substantially shape the future burden. Under scenarios with stronger development and expanding education, the share of women affected is projected to decline. Under a scenario with slower development and stalled educational progress, it remains relatively stable. However, the absolute number of women affected increases across all scenarios, largely because of population growth.

“Our projections show that the future is not shaped by warming alone,” says coauthor Roman Hoffmann, who leads the Migration and Sustainable Development Research Group at IIASA. “Investments in education, inclusive development, and women’s empowerment can help reduce vulnerability. But even where the share of women affected falls, population growth means that more women may still require protection and support.”

The findings highlight the importance of considering violence against women in climate adaptation and development planning. The authors say this is particularly relevant for policymakers working on climate adaptation, as well as organizations and agencies working to prevent violence against women. Investments in girls’ and women’s education, delaying early marriage, and greater economic opportunities are measures that can help reduce vulnerability in the region. The authors also recommend engaging men and boys, challenging harmful notions of male dominance, and promoting shared decision-making and non-violent conflict resolution.

The researchers emphasize that their scenarios are not predictions, but illustrations of possible futures. Intimate partner violence has multiple interconnected drivers, and temperature should not be interpreted as its primary cause. Rather, their research shows how climate pressures can interact with existing social and economic vulnerabilities and how development choices can influence the scale of the future burden.

Reference 
Peisker, J., Hoffmann, R., Baschieri, A., Udeh, C., and Striessnig, E. (2026). Intimate Partner Violence in sub-Saharan Africa under Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios. Global Environmental Change DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103224