Investments in health and mortality reduction to address population decline

Organized by the WHO in the framework of the Prince Mahidol Award Conference, the event explores how strategic investments in health and mortality reduction can transform demographic futures. Drawing on cutting-edge research at IIASA, Scherbov's presentation highlights evidence that strengthening health systems and reducing preventable deaths can play a key role in mitigating population decline worldwide. His contribution builds on a long tradition of demographic and health-systems research at IIASA that examines how longevity, survival, and population structure interact over time. 

This work is closely linked to IIASA’s Multidimensional Demographic Modeling (MDM) research group, as the analysis underlying the paper required the development of population and mortality projections for all countries of the world. Using the MDM framework, the study combines probabilistic forecasting with multidimensional population characteristics to assess how alternative health and mortality trajectories translate into different population futures, providing a globally consistent basis for evaluating the impact of health investments on population decline.

Scherbov is a leading expert in demographic analysis and population dynamics and a Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar at IIASA, where he has made foundational contributions to probabilistic population projections, the development of new indicators of ageing, and the integration of health and survival into demographic forecasting. His research - together with Warren Sanderson - has influenced how international organizations and governments assess population decline, population ageing, and the potential of health investments to shape future demographic trajectories.

Within IIASA’s Health, Ageing and Health Systems (H2A) research group, his work links advances in mortality modelling, measures of healthy ageing, and systems analysis to assess how improvements in health can alter the pace and consequences of population decline. By integrating demographic projections with evidence on health system performance and preventable mortality, this research clarifies how investments in health not only extend life expectancy but also reshape age structures, dependency patterns, and long-term population trajectories, positioning health policy as a central lever in responses to demographic change.

For more information please visit the event page.