Wildfire Risk in the Spotlight: AFE’s FLAM Model Featured in Austrian Media

Florian Kraxner, Agriculture, Forestry, and Ecosystem Services (AFE) Group Leader and Principal Research Scholar, together with Andrey Krasovskiy, Senior Research Scholar, and Eunbeen Park and Hyun-Woo Jo, Research Scholars, recently contributed their expertise in recent interviews with ORF and Der Standard articles, and a video reportage (available below). They highlighted how wildfire risks are intensifying and how research can help address these challenges in Austria and other regions. 

FLAM model simulates wildfire hazards at very high resolution by integrating climate, vegetation, and human activity data. Using FLAM, researchers can determine where forest fire hotspots might form in the future for various climate scenarios up to the end of the century and with an accuracy of up to 100 meters. 

Research findings indicate particularly vulnerable areas in Lower Austria and Tirol, where up to 25 hectares of forest could be lost annually under worst-case scenarios.  

The results are intended to help authorities, emergency organizations, and municipalities plan targeted prevention measures. "We don't just want to say where a risk exists, but also when and under what conditions it is particularly high," says Krasovskiy. 

Kraxner emphasizes that although Austria has historically been less affected by large wildfires, climate change is already altering risk patterns. Hotter and drier summers, shifting rainfall, and reduced snow cover in winter are leaving forests more vulnerable. Without proactive forest management, natural regrowth may simply reproduce vulnerable species such as spruce, rather than building resilient, climate-fit ecosystems.  

While today’s restrictions and fire bans are essential to address immediate risks, long-term adaptation requires science-based planning. Tools like FLAM are essential for guiding adaptation strategies, strengthening resilience, protecting vulnerable landscapes, and helping communities manage wildfire risks in a changing climate.  

Watch the full ORF interview (in German) to learn more: