MESSAGEix Community Meeting 2023

Alessio Mastrucci (IIASA) 

MESSAGEix-Buildings is a framework for modelling the energy and material demand of the global building sector under different socioeconomic, technology, climate and policy scenarios. This presentation will provide an overview of the modelling framework and illustrative applications in climate change mitigation and sustainable development scenarios.

Paul Natsuo Kishimoto (IIASA)

Florian Maczek (IIASA)

MESSAGEix-Materials is a MESSAGEix submodule that represents material cycles of the economy by modelling industrial processes and connected material flows explicitly. It was created with the goal to understand and evaluate implications of material cycles on energy systems and emissions.
In this presentation, we show the latest model additions in the petrochemical sector and an exemplary assessment of the sector in the context of climate change mitigation.

Maik Budzinski (Aalborg University)

This talk will focus on coupling MESSAGEix with a multi-regional input-output model. The method and results are related to this publication.

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Yoga Pratama (IIASA)

The goal of this session is to introduce technology cost learning and myopic/adaptive optimization approach implementation in MESSAGEix. Here, We separate economies of scale and

learning effects in technology cost improvements. A method to estimate learning and economy of scale parameters from historical data for MESSAGEix input is also introduced.

Alaa Al Khourdajie (Imperial College London; IIASA)

Recently, the literature provided a framework to model the feedback loop between investors’ expectations and risk assessment, and the allocation of investments in the economy, by linking process-based Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to a climate financial risk (CFR) model and climate stress-test (Battiston et al., 2021).

In this paper, we operationalise this approach through an application of the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM modelling framework across a whole range of energy technologies and climate scenarios and the feedback loop with the CFR. As a main innovation of the state of the art, we estimate the probability of default of firms characterised by different energy technology assets (such as coal, gas and oil, as well as solar, wind and other renewable technologies), conditioned to different mitigation scenarios, characterised by differing temperature targets and immediate versus delayed emission reduction actions. We then model the adjustment in the risk profile of these assets, and the hurdle rates on loans, with a dynamic climate credit risk model. These resulting trajectories of financing costs (i.e. hurdle rates and yields) for energy technology assets across the selected scenarios are then fed back into MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM in order to update the output trajectories, which in turn affect the mitigation scenarios. This is an ongoing work, and the aim is to present the latest findings during this workshop.

Please provide feedback for the draft paper in the collection of presentation materials.

Görkem Güngör (Hacettepe University)

I am going to outline "Achieving the net-zero emission target: A meta-analysis of Turkish energy and emission scenarios", which I submitted for the RFF-CMCC Summer School.

The climate target of the Paris Agreement to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C in 2100 and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine forced the European Commission to revise the climate policy from low-carbon transition to phase-out of fossil fuels. The energy markets are vulnerable to the price volatility of fossil fuel resources due to the instability of the supplier countries. Therefore, the European countries with stringent climate mitigation aim for inter-regional cooperation with Mediterranean countries having renewable energy potential. The Turkish national energy plan, announced on January 2023, projects an increased supply of renewable primary energy sources from 24.6 Mtoe in 2020 to 48.7 Mtoe in 2035. But, the achievement of the net-zero emission target for 2053 is vague due to the uncertainties in hydrogen demand for exporting to Europe and blending domestic natural gas in Turkey. In the first part of this study, the authors aim to conduct a meta-analysis of 26 energy and climate modelling studies for Turkey by focusing on the synergies and trade-offs between the European and Turkish energy and climate policies. In the second part of this study, the authors aim to analyse the uncertainties using Bayesian inference by focusing on the low-carbon transition of the buildings and transport sectors.

Changwoo Lee (Greenhouse Gas Inventory & Research Center of Korea)

South Korea's greenhouse gas emissions amounted to 727Mt in 2018, comprising 1.5% of global emissions (UNEP). The energy conversion and industrial sectors accounted for approximately 71% of the total emissions. In addition, South Korea has established carbon neutrality for 2050 and a National Determined Contribution (NDC) target of a 40% reduction compared to 2018 by 2030.

Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center (GIR) of Korea plays a vital role in establishing national targets by conducting inventory reports, modeling research, and responding to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Recently, there has been an increasing demand for a comprehensive energy system model that can balance the economic feasibility of energy use and production for enhanced transparency and cross-sector analysis of the national emission reduction plan. Therefore, we have been developing the bottom-up model using MESSAGEix since 2022.

In this community meeting, we will introduce the scope, structure, and characteristics of the MESSAGEix-GIR. Also, we will share scenarios and preliminary results, primarily focusing on the power sector.

Natalia Weber (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul)

As part of my Phd thesis I proposed a methodology that links MESSAGEix to regional climate model simulations. To integrate the climate change data with the energy system, model a methodology in three main steps were designed. A novel aspect of this approach was the development of a model that optimizes SPHS technology with the seasonal variability of renewable sources for three climate change scenarios. Additionally, a new detailed hydropower representation was defined for the SPHS implementation on the Brazilian Electricity System MESSAGEix Model (BESMM). Climate change adds a new dimension to this approach as it has evidence of increasing the seasonal imbalance of variable renewable resources in Brazil. BESMM results indicate that SPHS played a fundamental role in achieving a 100% renewable matrix by 2100 in scenario RCP 2.6, as well as increasing renewable energy endowment in scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. SPHS showed to be a key technology to enable offshore wind power to gain traction within the BESMM matrix, considering that offshore wind power has high capacity, but one of the highest seasonality indices. A reduction of up to 68% of CO2 emissions was achieved in scenarios with SPHS when compared with scenarios without SPHS.

Amaro Pereira (COPPE/UFRJ)

Oliver Fricko (IIASA)

The land-use emulator integrates a set of land-use scenarios into the MESSAGEix energy system model. The linkage between an energy model, here MESSAGEix, and a set of land-use model scenarios, derived in this case by GLOBIOM, is important to explore the potential of bioenergy and the implications of using biomass for energy generation on emissions, the cost of the system, and related land-use implications.

Together, we will take a look at the workflow behind the land-use scenario integration. We will look at both conceptual and technical aspects and explore how to validate the setup by taking a glimpse at some exemplary results.

Jan Steinhauser (IIASA)

What’s better than one land-use model linked to your energy model? TWO land-use models linked to your energy model, obviously! While the MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM integrated assessment framework is well established, a case can be made for opening this strong relationship and bringing in new potential partners. This creates more flexibility and strengthens MESSAGEix’ ability to fulfill different modelling needs.
In this talk, I will introduce you to a not-yet-linked land-use model, MAgPIE, the ongoing process and challenges of linking it to MESSAGEix, and potential applications once that is achieved.

Adriano Vinca (IIASA)

Paul Natsuo Kishimoto (IIASA)

Philip Hackstock (IIASA)

Paul Natsuo Kishimoto (IIASA)

Elina Brutschin (IIASA)

Madeleine Seatle (University of Victoria)

Jun Ukita Shepard (U.S. Department of Energy)

In this talk, I'm going to present on how modeling is used in American climate policy.

Behnam Zakeri, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Volker Krey (all IIASA)