Climate-driven drought linked to rising violence among adolescents in Southern Africa

Analysing data from over 20,000 adolescents (aged 13-24) in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho, the study finds girls and young women, older adolescents (aged 18-24), and those living in rural areas face the highest risk of violence during drought conditions.

Water availability in Southern Africa is expected to decline by 30% by 2050. As water scarcity intensifies, levels of poverty, food insecurity and mental health distress increase – worsening inequalities, separating families, and driving harmful coping mechanisms such as child marriage, child labour, and forced migration. This is particularly alarming in sub-Saharan Africa, where an estimated 79 million girls experience sexual violence before age 18 and one in two children experience a form of violence in the past year. The study highlights that climate change is intensifying this crisis for the region’s 226 million adolescents.

The study, published in The Lancet Planetary Health, was led by Bothaina Eltigani, DPhil student and researcher at Oxford’s Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI), and coauthored by Roman Hoffmann, Migration and Sustainable Development Research Group Leader in the IIASA Population and Just Societies Program.

Results showed that adolescents living in drought conditions experienced:

• 46% increase in sexual violence by non-partners
• 51% increase in emotional violence by partners in areas affected by drought, rising to 73% increase for non-partner emotional violence
• 39% increase in physical violence by partners and 41% by non-partners.
• Up to double the risk of experiencing all forms of violence in regions affected by cumulative drought (over 24 months).
• Higher risk for girls (vs boys), particularly for non-partner sexual violence and partner and non-partner emotional violence.
• Greater risk of several violence forms amongst older adolescents (aged 18-24) compared to those 13-17 years.
• Higher exposure to non-partner physical violence in rural areas, especially under severe drought conditions.

Eltigani commented: “As a doctor in Sudan, I saw how drought and water scarcity place enormous strain on families – especially in rural communities, where the burden is greatest and the risks to young people’s safety often go unseen.

“While direct health effects of droughts are increasingly well-understood, the link to violence against adolescents remain largely unexplored. Our findings show that drought disproportionately affects already vulnerable groups and underscores a clear call to action: adolescent and youth-focused, gender-sensitive violence prevention strategies must be integrated into early warning systems with sustainable climate adaptation measures – particularly in regions facing prolonged drought. With climate change expected to increase both the frequency and severity of droughts in Southern Africa, integrating violence prevention into climate resilience strategies is no longer optional – it is essential.”

Hoffmann adds: “Our findings show that vulnerability to climate shocks is not evenly distributed. Girls face heightened risks because unequal power structures often limit their access to climate adaptation resources and decision-making, while increasing unpaid domestic responsibilities such as collecting water and fuel – tasks that can expose them to greater risk of victimisation.

The study highlights why vulnerability differs across other groups:

• Age: Older adolescents (aged 18-24) face increased risks from partners and others due to greater mobility, financial responsibility, and social mixing.
• Location: Rural communities are more exposed due to reliance on rain-fed agriculture and weaker infrastructure.

Reference:
Eltigani, B., Hoffmann, R., & Cluver, L. (2026). Drought exposure and the risk of sexual, emotional, and physical violence against adolescents in Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Lesotho: an observational study. The Lancet Planetary Health DOI: 10.1016/j.lanplh.2026.101448

Adapted from a press release prepared by the Department of Social Policy and Intervention (DSPI) at the University of Oxford. Read the original article.