The first workshop of the Foresight Exercise is organized in the framework of the “Emerging trade routes between Europe and Asia” scenario building project. The aim of the first workshop is to discuss the key factors that would impact shipping in the Arctic in the next 30 years and their interlinkages. This workshop consists of two virtual meetings. 

Emerging Trade Routes between Europe and Asia © Yevgeniy Plotnikov |

The Workshop participants include: 

  •  Mikhail Belkin, State Policy Director, Directorate of the Northern Sea Route, State Corporation Rosatom, Russia
  • Lawson W. Brigham, Wilson Fellow, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, USA
  • Pavel Isaev, Advisor to CEO, Severstal, Russia
  • Mikael M. Janson, Director, North Sweden European Office, Belgium
  • Pavel Kabat, Chief Scientist & Director Research, World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
  • Hanna Laurén, Director, Trade Policy, Confederation of Finnish Industries, Finland
  • Tero Vauraste, Regional Director Nordics, Iceye Oy, Finland
  • Charles J. Vörösmarty, Director, Environmental Sciences Initiative, Advanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center of the City University of New York, USA

Four scenarios of future global trade and investment by the World Economic Forum Future Council on Trade and Investment are considered, and by using these scenarios, major global drivers relevant for the development of shipping in the Arctic are derived. Next, regional factors which will eventually have an impact on volume shipments of a different nature are discussed and interlinkages among these factors are established.

The outcome of the first workshop is a system map of factors, i.e., a causal loop diagram connecting factors with each other. This systems map should serve as input to the development of plausible future scenarios of shipping in the Arctic, consistent with the global scenarios by the World Economic Forum Future Council on Trade and Investment.

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