First workshop of the Foresight Exercise “Emerging Trade Routes between Europe and Asia”

• Pavel Isaev, Advisor to CEO, Severstal, Russia
• Mikael M. Janson, Director, North Sweden European Office, Belgium
• Pavel Kabat, Chief Scientist & Director Research, World Meteorological Organization, Switzerland
• Hanna Laurén, Director, Trade Policy, Confederation of Finnish Industries, Finland
• Tero Vauraste, Regional Director Nordics, Iceye Oy, Finland
• Charles J. Vörösmarty, Director, Environmental Sciences Initiative, Advanced Science Research Center at The Graduate Center of the City University of New York, USA

Four scenarios of future global trade and investment by the World Economic Forum Future Council on Trade and Investment are considered, and by using these scenarios, major global drivers relevant for the development of shipping in the Arctic are derived. Next, regional factors which will eventually have an impact on volume shipments of a different nature are discussed and interlinkages among these factors are established.

The outcome of the first workshop is a system map of factors, i.e., a causal loop diagram connecting factors with each other. This systems map should serve as input to the development of plausible future scenarios of shipping in the Arctic, consistent with the global scenarios by the World Economic Forum Future Council on Trade and Investment.