On sense and nonsense of end-of-the-world predictions

The Doomsday Conference, organized by the Complexity Science Hub in Vienna on 12–13 November 2026, revisits a prediction published in Science in 1960 by Heinz von Foerster and colleagues, which suggested that world population would reach a mathematical singularity on 13 November 2026. Bringing together perspectives from mathematics, demography, and other fields, the conference will examine the assumptions behind such predictions and what they can tell us about the future.

Wolfgang Lutz brings decades of research into population dynamics and long-term demographic projections to this discussion. At IIASA, he helped pioneer probabilistic approaches to forecasting global population trends and advance the integration of education into population projections. His work has helped demonstrate why understanding humanity’s future requires looking beyond population numbers alone to consider age structures, educational attainment, and human capital.

These questions are central to the session “Peak Human – what follows?”, for which Lutz will give the opening statement on 13 November. As global population growth slows and a population peak approaches, attention increasingly turns to what follows: how demographic change, population ageing, and differences in education and human capabilities may shape societies.

This is also where IIASA’s broader research contributes to the debate. By examining how population size, age structure, and education interact, IIASA researchers develop scenarios that help policymakers and researchers explore alternative demographic futures and understand their implications for human well-being and societal development. Such work provides an evidence-based perspective on a question at the heart of the conference: not simply whether humanity will reach a population peak, but what that turning point could mean for the future.

For further information and the conference programme, visit the Doomsday Conference website.