Securing food production on a rapidly warming continent: EU climate advisors call for urgent action

The report titled, Climate adaptation and mitigation in the agri-food system – Recommendations for coherent EU policies – highlights that Europe’s food system underpins food security, rural livelihoods, and strategic autonomy, but is increasingly exposed to droughts, floods, heatwaves, and disease outbreaks. Climate-related agricultural losses already amount to tens of billions of euros annually and are expected to rise significantly as Europe continues to warm faster than many other regions.

Adapting to climate change will require adjustments in planting patterns, pest control, irrigation, and water management, as well as avoiding farming in flood- and landslide-prone areas. In some regions agriculture may become increasingly difficult, meaning adaptation strategies will need to reflect local conditions rather than one-size-fits-all solutions.

Mitigating greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture will also require significant changes, including reducing fossil fuel use in machinery and fertilizer production and lowering methane and nitrous oxide emissions from livestock and fertilizers.

“Agriculture is very dependent on oil to power machinery and gas to produce nitrogen fertilizer,” explains IIASA Energy, Climate, and Environment Program Director, Keywan Riahi, who is also an Advisory Board member. “Rising oil prices, fueled by the current war in the Middle East, mean rising food production cost, which disproportionately impact low-income households.”

While fossil CO₂ emissions account for just 15% of the greenhouse gas emissions from European agriculture, replacing oil with renewable electricity and low-carbon fuels is a feasible strategy that will reduce the vulnerability to global oil prices. The board therefore suggests including agricultural CO₂ emissions in the EU’s carbon pricing scheme, and introducing separate schemes for pricing emissions of nitrous oxide and methane.

The ongoing revision of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) presents a key opportunity to align agricultural policy with climate goals.

“Today, the CAP subsidizes the most greenhouse-gas intensive practices, including cattle farming and the draining of peatlands. It thus undermines the EU’s climate goals,” says IIASA Principal Research Scholar and Advisory Board member, Edgar Hertwich, who contributed to the report.

The Board also recommends ending coupled payments to livestock production and decoupled payments for peatland areas.

“This money can be used to support adaptation and structural change, including the move towards plant-based products,” Hertwich adds. “Such a redirection of public funds represents a better investment by preparing Europe for an uncertain but more volatile future climate.”

The report emphasizes that achieving climate neutrality while safeguarding food security will require a systemic transition away from livestock products across the entire agri-food system, supported by stronger policy incentives and targeted support for farmers. Upcoming revisions of the EU budget, the Common Agricultural Policy, and the EU’s 2031–2040 climate framework provide a key opportunity to align agricultural policy with Europe’s climate and resilience objectives.

Further information
Read the full report