Shift to healthy, sustainable diets would reshape global agriculture

Following recommendations to shift to healthier diets, improve farm productivity, and halve food waste could lead to a 6% reduction in global agricultural land use by 2050 and a 42% decline ($630 billion) in global livestock production value compared to 2020.

Implementing the changes by 2050 would also lead to an estimated 70% ($274bn) decrease in the production value of ruminant animals (beef cattle, sheep, and goats) and 400 million fewer ruminant animals globally compared to 2020. In contrast, the global value of vegetable, fruit, nut, and legume production would increase by 57% ($890bn).

The new analysis published in Nature by researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), Cornell University, and other partners including IIASA, examined the implications of implementing a 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission-style food systems transformation.

IIASA contributed through its Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), one of ten global economic models used in the multimodel assessment. In addition to providing model results, the IIASA team helped implement and assess the study scenarios. GLOBIOM's detailed representation of agriculture, forestry, bioenergy, and land use enabled researchers to evaluate how dietary changes could affect agricultural production, land use, greenhouse gas emissions, and other environmental outcomes.

"By including GLOBIOM in this international modeling effort, IIASA helped assess how healthier diets could reshape agriculture, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions. Using multiple models provides a more robust basis for understanding the opportunities and trade-offs of transforming global food systems," explains Petr Havlík, IIASA Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program Director and study coauthor.

The 2025 EAT-Lancet Commission report found that if people around the world switched to healthy diets it could prevent around 15 million premature deaths each year. Previous research has also estimated the hidden costs of current global food systems at $10-$20 trillion annually, with the majority linked to unhealthy diets.

The new analysis shows that implementing the EAT-Lancet recommendations could reduce agriculture-related net CO₂ emissions from land-use change by 85% by 2050 compared to 2020 levels.

Lead author Matt Gibson, who began the work at Cornell University before joining LSHTM, said: "Transforming food systems would deliver enormous potential benefits to our health and the environment but, as our results make clear, they would also lead to fundamental changes to global agriculture and affect the lives of millions of farmers and food producers."

Daniel Mason-D'Croz, another study coauthor from Cornell University, adds: " We should consider these scenarios not as a forecast of what will happen, but as a useful early guide of where challenges and opportunities may arise. Which sectors would need to contract, and which would need to expand. A transformation of this magnitude cannot begin in 2050. Foresight modeling like that highlighted in this study is a valuable tool to inform actions today for more sustainable, healthy, and just food systems tomorrow.”

The impacts of food system transformation would vary considerably across regions. Overall agricultural production value is projected to decline in Europe and the United States, driven largely by reduced livestock production, while India could see overall agricultural production increase as crop production expands.

Although the study does not provide Austria-specific results, its findings suggest that healthier diets combined with reduced food loss and waste could lower pressure on agricultural land and the environment. The impacts for Austria would depend on trade, agricultural policies, and how farming systems adapt. The country's extensive grassland-based livestock systems mean that changes in consumption would not necessarily translate directly into lower livestock production.

"While this study focuses on global trends, IIASA is now investigating what dietary transitions could mean for European agriculture through the Horizon Europe SWITCH and CHOICE projects, helping policymakers better understand the implications for food security, biodiversity, climate mitigation, and agricultural livelihoods," says coauthor Marta Kozicka, a researcher in Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group of the IIASA Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program.

The study assumed a costless shift in consumer preferences towards healthier diets. In reality, the authors note that changing diets depends on affordability, accessibility, cultural preferences, and consumer behavior. The scenarios therefore represent one of several possible futures rather than predictions.

The authors conclude that acting now will help governments manage the transition towards healthier and more sustainable food systems while supporting farmers, food producers, and consumers.

Adapted from a press release by LSHTM. Read the original article.

Reference
Gibson, M., Sundiang, M., Mason-D’Croz, D., Oliveira, T.D., Beier, F., Benavidez, L., Bos, A., Chepeliev, M., Doelman, J., et al. (2026). Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture. Nature DOI: 10.1038/s41586-026-10775-2