Switching European food systems for a just, healthy and sustainable dietary transition through knowledge and innovation (SWITCH)

WP7 - EU scenario of food dietary patterns and environmental and socio-economic shifts

In this project, IIASA integrates a suite of advanced tools and models to address specific questions and develop scenarios at the EU level, building upon results from local to national and continental scales.

IBF’s GLOBIOM model will be enhanced to provide a comprehensive sustainability assessment of scaling up dietary scenarios in the EU, focusing on healthy diets and systems identified in regional case studies. This enhancement will consider the diverse food demands of various population groups and will involve:

• Improved representation of consumer heterogeneity in dietary patterns across the EU;
• Development of health indicators related to per capita food consumption;
• Enhanced modeling of field vegetable production systems for EU countries.

To strengthen the latter, the AFE team will leverage the biophysical modeling framework EPIC-IIASA to improve the representation of field vegetable production in GLOBIOM. This enhanced supply-side representation will capture key components of healthy diets and allow for the assessment of the impacts of dietary shifts on key socioeconomic metrics in agriculture.

A key outcome of the integrated model scenarios is the development of a robust framework for assessing the potential impacts of dietary shifts, including trade-offs and co-benefits. These impacts will be evaluated across health, socioeconomic outcomes, greenhouse gas emissions, and mitigation potentials in the agri-food sector. The integrated modeling toolbox will offer a "systemic approach" to evaluate the expected and actual impacts of dietary shifts, aligned with the three pillars of sustainability—health, climate/environment, and economics—and in line with the EU Green Deal objectives.

Key Objectives:

• Assessing potential trade-offs and co-benefits on health, socio-economic outcomes, greenhouse gas emissions, and mitigation potentials of the agri-food sector.
• Utilizing an integrated modeling toolbox to evaluate expected and actual impacts, co-benefits, and trade-offs concerning the three pillars of sustainability: health, climate/environmental, and economic.
• Aligning efforts with the EU Green Deal objectives.

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