Advanced ensemble projections for indirect impacts of nuclear conflict in global food systems (ANFOS)

Weather perturbations following nuclear weapon detonations would entail atmospheric shading, cooling, and drying, frequently referred to as nuclear winter. Consequently, large parts of mankind may be at risk of starvation as has been shown by climate-crop modelling studies. Yet, earlier studies did not integrate comprehensive uncertainties in crop models across various intensities of climate perturbations from different levels of atmospheric soot (black carbon) injection, the potentials and limitations of adaptation such as timing of growing seasons or crop choice, and further disruptions in agricultural production such as fertilizer, seed and labor shortages.

The ANFOS project sets out to pursue a comprehensive assessment of food production and supply disruptions by harnessing the comprehensive crop modelling capacities of the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) ensemble to simulate secondary climatic impacts of nuclear conflict on global crop production at various intensities of nuclear winter for the above adaptation options and extended impacts. This will provide the thus far most comprehensive assessment of potential impacts on crop production and the available option space for adaptation under the working hypotheses that adaptation potential is limited and supply chain disruptions may substantially exacerbate impacts already at lower intensities of soot injection.