As Europe advances its climate adaptation and biodiversity strategies, a new report by the Assessing Climate Change Risk in Europe (ACCREU) project, led by IIASA in partnership with the Technical University of Denmark (DTU) and the Global Climate Forum (GCF), shows how climate change and changes in land use will reshape ecosystems and the services they provide. The study examines wetlands, forests, farmland, species habitats, and pollination under different scenarios, combining ecological modeling with economic valuation.

The findings highlight the enormous value of nature. Coastal wetlands currently provide flood and storm protection worth over US$ 10 billion annually to European communities and infrastructure. However, these natural defenses face significant threats from rising sea levels and coastal development, with researchers noting that protecting and restoring wetlands proves more cost-effective than engineered alternatives.

Wildfires are projected to increase in a warmer, drier Europe, especially in southern countries. These fires reduce forest carbon, disrupt timber supply, and put many plants and animals at risk. While some species benefit from small, controlled burns, most wildlife populations decline under the frequent, high-intensity fires projected in future warming scenarios.

Sea-level rise poses an additional threat to agricultural productivity, with low-lying regions in Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands facing substantial risks. This creates challenging trade-offs between immediate food production needs and long-term ecological resilience.

Many European wildlife species face severe habitat loss by 2050, with pollinators among the most vulnerable groups. These insects, including bees and butterflies, currently provide agricultural pollination services valued at more than US$ 5 billion annually, a figure that could decline by half by mid-century without habitat protection measures. This estimate is conservative, as it does not include important crops such as fruit trees, which would further increase the overall value.

The report makes clear that Europe is facing difficult trade-offs. While protecting nature may have economic consequences for agricultural productivity, ecosystem-based solutions such as wetland conservation and integrated land use and wildfire management may deliver substantial economic benefits alongside their ecological value.

Overall, the study shows that climate change and land use change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, and that the services they provide are at risk. The authors stress that ecosystem-based strategies are essential for Europe’s adaptation to climate change, delivering economic as well as ecological value.

This article was first published on the ACCREU project website. Read the original article here.

Find out more: 
Read the full report 
Visit the ACCREU website

News

GArtenvielfalt

24 August 2026

Project "G/ArtenLeben": Turning gardens into biodiversity hotspots together

How can private gardens help support biodiversity in Austria? The new IIASA citizen science project G/ArtenLeben brings science and gardening practice together. At three G/ArtenCafés in Lower Austria, hobby gardeners are invited to contribute their knowledge and experience to research and work alongside scientists to explore how gardening can help biodiversity thrive.
dreamstime_l_151898459

20 August 2026

How can EU battery regulations help improve global sustainability governance in other sectors?

In a new paper, researchers explain how EU battery regulations can help lay the groundwork for a widely shared evidentiary system for global sustainability governance.
banner

28 July 2026

New citizen science campaign on mowing events launching in 2026

Starting this Friday, 31st of July, the Mowing Quest citizen science campaign invites people across Europe to help improve grassland monitoring. By using the free Geo-Quest app, participants can report mowing events directly from the field and support scientific research with their own observations. The campaign will be open during August and September to test the system capabilities in preparation for a larger 2027 campaign.