Global carbon emissions in 2022 remain at record levels with no sign of the decrease that is urgently needed to limit warming to 1.5°C, according to the Global Carbon Project science team. If current emissions levels persist, there is now a 50% chance that global warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded in nine years.
The Global Carbon Budget report, produced by an international team of more than 100 scientists, examines both carbon sources and sinks. It provides an annual, peer-reviewed update, building on established methodologies in a fully transparent manner.
The new report projects total global CO2 emissions of 40.6 billion tonnes (GtCO2) in 2022. This is fueled by fossil CO2 emissions, which are projected to rise by 1% compared to 2021, reaching 36.6 GtCO2 – slightly above the 2019 pre-COVID-19 levels*. Emissions from land-use change (such as deforestation) are projected to be 3.9 GtCO2 in 2022.
Projected emissions from coal and oil are above their 2021 levels, with oil being the largest contributor to total emissions growth. The growth in oil emissions can be largely explained by the delayed rebound of international aviation following COVID-19 pandemic restrictions.
The 2022 picture among major emitters is mixed: emissions are projected to fall in China (0.9%) and the EU (0.8%), and increase in the USA (1.5%) and India (6%), with a 1.7% rise in the rest of the world combined.
The remaining carbon budget for a 50% likelihood to limit global warming to 1.5°C has reduced to 380 GtCO2 (exceeded after nine years if emissions remain at 2022 levels) and 1230 GtCO2 to limit to 2°C (30 years at 2022 emissions levels).
To reach zero CO2 emissions by 2050 would now require a decrease of about 1.4 GtCO2 each year, comparable to the observed fall in 2020 emissions resulting from COVID-19 lockdowns, highlighting the scale of the action required.
Land and oceans, which absorb and store carbon, continue to take up around half of the CO2 emissions. The ocean and land CO2 sinks are still increasing in response to the atmospheric CO2 increase, although climate change reduced this growth by an estimated 4% (ocean sink) and 17% (land sink) over the 2012-2021 decade.
This year's carbon budget shows that the long-term rate of increasing fossil emissions has slowed. The average rise peaked at +3% per year during the 2000s, while growth in the last decade has been about +0.5% per year.
The research team – including researchers from IIASA, the University of Exeter, the University of East Anglia, CICERO, and Ludwig-Maximilian-University Munich among others – welcomed this slow-down, but said it was "far from the emissions decrease we need". IIASA contributed estimates of annual CO2 emissions from land use change using the OSCAR model.
"This year we see yet another rise in global fossil CO2 emissions, when we need a rapid decline," said Pierre Friedlingstein, professor at Exeter's Global Systems Institute, who led the study. "There are some positive signs, but leaders meeting at COP27 will have to take meaningful action if we are to have any chance of limiting global warming close to 1.5°C. The Global Carbon Budget numbers monitor the progress on climate action and right now we are not seeing the action required.”
According to the report, land-use changes, especially deforestation, are a significant source of CO2 emissions (about a tenth of the amount from fossil emissions). Brazil, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Indonesia contribute 58% of global land-use change emissions.
Carbon removal via reforestation or new forests counterbalances half of the deforestation emissions, and the researchers say that stopping deforestation and increasing efforts to restore and expand forests constitutes a large opportunity to reduce emissions and increase removals in forests.
The Global Carbon Budget report projects that atmospheric CO2 concentrations will reach an average of 417.2 parts per million in 2022, more than 50% above pre-industrial levels. The projection of 40.6 GtCO2 total emissions in 2022 is close to the 40.9 GtCO2 in 2019, which is the highest annual total ever.
“Unfortunately, none of this year's results are surprising. As staying below 1.5°C keeps being more elusive, and given the current geopolitical and economic contexts, one can wonder whether countries will ever deliver on their promises. Nevertheless, efforts should continue, both within governments and civil society, as every fraction of a degree matters,” concludes Thomas Gasser, an IIASA researcher jointly associated with the Exploratory Modeling of Human-Natural Systems and Integrated Assessment and Climate Change research groups.
The findings come as world leaders meet at COP27 in Egypt to discuss the climate crisis and will be discussed at several sessions from 11 to 13 November 2022.
* These estimates include the cement carbonation sink of 0.8 GtCO2 per year.
Adapted from a press release prepared by the Global Carbon Project.
The full report is available online here: https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022
13 September 2023
05 September 2023
30 August 2023