Join AIMES, the Earth Commission, Future Earth, and the WCRP's Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity for a webinar on temporal and spatial scales in tipping processes.
The Tipping points discussion series supports efforts to increase consistency in the treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip). It is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance, and the Safe Landing Climates Light House Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP). IIASA co-hosts the scientific secretariat of Working Group 1 of the Earth Commission and is one of the organizers of these events.
This webinar will explore tipping points in complex systems, focusing on their spatial and temporal scales. It will feature two talks that examine how tipping points emerge and evolve in both social and ecological contexts.
The first talk talk will challenge traditional views on spatial self-organization in ecosystems, questioning the idea that it signals proximity to a critical transition between alternative ecosystem states, like vegetated vs. desert landscapes. Recent research suggests spatial self-organization could, in fact, enhance resilience and help ecosystems avoid tipping points. The speaker will present a revised theoretical framework and discuss new findings demonstrating that the response of self-organized ecosystems to environmental changes depends on the specific types of interactions responsible for pattern formation.
In the second talk we'll dive into the complexities of human collective behavior, where new models will be presented to anticipate both intended and unintended consequences of interventions in social systems. The role of heterogeneity in triggering and extending tipping points in collective behavior will be explored, offering a deeper understanding of how social dynamics evolve and shift.
This session will shed light on the variability in how ecological and social systems respond to change, shedding light on resilience, tipping points, and the potential for stability in an uncertain world.
Presentations
- Ricardo Martinez Garcia (Helmholtz-Zentrum Dresden-Rossendorf) The role of spatial patterns in ecosystem tipping
- Vítor V. Vasconcelos (University of Amsterdam) From individual heterogeneous preferences to collective behavior
- Q&A/ Discussion
The session will be moderated by Ulrike Feudel (Oldenburg University)
A recording will be available after the event.