In 2024, the Economic Frontiers Program explored the shifting dynamics between demography, health, and sustainability.
IIASA researchers examined a range of complex economic challenges — from the implications of falling fertility in high-income countries to the rising burden of Alzheimer’s disease and the role of sustainable agriculture in reducing emissions. The program also explored policy strategies for managing future pandemics, highlighting the importance of adaptability in times of uncertainty. By integrating economic, social, and environmental factors, the program supports long-term strategies that prioritize both resilience and sustainability in economic planning.
Reducing India’s agricultural emissions with sustainable farming
IIASA researchers examined how India’s agriculture sector – employing two-thirds of the nation’s workforce and contributing nearly 25% of total greenhouse gas emissions – can reduce its climate impact through sustainable practices.
Given agriculture’s central role in India’s net-zero transition, researchers analyzed future methane and nitrous oxide emissions across 23 sub-regions using the IIASA GAINS modeling framework, a globally recognized tool for assessing non-CO₂ emissions and pollution control strategies.
“As one of the world’s largest greenhouse gas (GHG) emitters, India’s emissions trajectory is key to global climate goals,” notes study author and IIASA researcher Omkar Patange. “While methane and nitrous oxide make up a smaller share of total GHG emissions, their global warming potential is higher than carbon dioxide, making them critical targets for effective climate action.”
The study compares current agricultural policies with a sustainable agriculture scenario that integrates structural changes and advanced technological interventions. Findings reveal that by 2030, methane and nitrous oxide emissions could be reduced by 6% and 19%, respectively, and by 27% and 40% by 2050 compared to existing policies with minimal intervention.
At the state level, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana demonstrate the highest mitigation potential. Beyond emission reductions, these measures offer co-benefits, including improved air quality, better public health, and new livelihood opportunities for local communities.
As India advances its climate commitments, this research highlights the pivotal role of sustainable agriculture in reducing emissions while strengthening environmental and economic resilience.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19739
Strategies for wealthy nations to address the baby bust
In recent decades, fertility rates in high-income countries have steadily declined. IIASA researchers analyzed demographic trends, patterns, determinants, and consequences.
While low fertility presents significant economic challenges, a well-planned policy response can effectively mitigate most negative impacts.
For example, below-replacement fertility, which leads to a shrinking population, is a major issue for China. It is also expected to become significant for India, other South and Southeast Asian countries, and many Latin American countries.
“Low fertility and its economic challenges will become a global trend in the coming years. While ecologically beneficial, shrinking populations raise concerns about sustaining economic growth and social security. Some policy discussions on this topic are confused and exaggerated – our analysis aims to clarify the debate by compiling recent research and evidence,” explains study coauthor Michael Kuhn, IIASA Economic Frontiers Program Director.
Given the complexity of fertility, attempting to directly "stir" or "stimulate" it through targeted policy initiatives may seem challenging or even impractical. Instead, it is crucial to design economies that allow individuals to freely choose their fertility based on preferences rather than constraints. This involves creating nurturing environments where children can thrive in a sustainable world focused on wellbeing, rather than solely on economic performance.
Kuhn emphasizes that the decline in fertility, coupled with population aging and potential depopulation, should not serve as excuses to delay urgent climate and environmental transitions; instead, they should be addressed through decisive and coherent policymaking.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19964
From epidemic to endemic: viral mutations, immunity, and policy responses
The COVID-19 pandemic posted a dilemma: how and when to use costly nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to slow contagion. IIASA researchers addressed the pressing question of how aggressively to implement costly NPIs, commonly known as “lockdowns”.
Some NPIs, like having office workers work remotely, are cheap and non-intrusive.
“The more intensively NPIs are deployed, the fewer infections occur, but the greater the economic and social burdens,” explains Dieter Grass, lead author of the study and guest researcher in the Economic Frontiers Program. “For example, China’s zero-COVID policy resulted in an extended and painful lockdown, while many countries that closed schools saw harms to educational progress.”
The study extends existing models by showing how small changes in key parameters can lead to very different policy recommendations. Findings also suggest that a certain humility is needed, with supporters of any policy being less certain that their preferred choice is the “right”, or only rational, science-based solution.
“It is impossible for anyone to be certain in real-time what policy will be optimal as a pandemic unfolds. As new insights into the virus’s unique characteristics emerge, even experts may need to adjust their approach. Additionally, the policy that was optimal for COVID-19 may not be the best for the next pandemic, especially if the virus is more contagious, less deadly, or less prone to mutation,” concludes Stefan Wrzaczek, a study coauthor and researcher in the Economic Frontiers Program.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19481
The economic burden of Alzheimer’s disease
As the global population ages, Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias (ADODs) pose a growing economic and social challenge. IIASA researchers used a macroeconomic model to assess the global cost of ADODs across 152 countries.
By 2050, the proportion of people aged 65 and older will nearly double. ADODs impact cognition, mobility, and independence – placing strain on families, healthcare systems, and economies.
Research shows that from 2020 to 2050, ADODs will cost the world economy an estimated INT$14,513 billion (2020 base year), or 0.421% of annual global GDP. Japan faces the highest GDP loss at 1.463%, while China, the US, and Japan face the largest absolute economic burdens.
“This study includes two previously overlooked factors: formal care as an economic contributor and the impact of informal caregiving on labor supply and GDP,” explains study coauthor Michael Kuhn, IIASA Economic Frontiers Program Director. “By integrating these aspects, it provides a clearer picture of ADODs' true macroeconomic burden, offering key insights for policymakers and healthcare planning.”
Informal caregiving accounts for 60.97%–85.45% of this burden, reducing caregivers’ labor participation and affecting economic productivity. Formal care and treatment costs range from 10.5% to 30.8%, depending on income level. In 2019, informal caregivers spent an average of five hours per day per patient, highlighting the immense burden on families.
These findings highlight the need to invest in global efforts to address the ADOD crisis. Informal care, a major driver of economic burden, must be reevaluated and managed effectively as populations continue to age.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19945