16 December 2013
The European Commission is currently looking at cost-efficient ways to cut emissions of greenhouse gases by 2030 in line with its Roadmap for 2050. The Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy suggests that, by 2050, the EU should cut its emissions to 80% below 1990 levels through domestic reductions alone. It identifies a cost-effective pathway to this goal - reductions of the order of 40% by 2030 and 60% by 2040. As a model partner in the EUCLIMIT project financed by the European Commission DG-CLIMA, IIASA's GAINS model provides the scientific background on the future emissions of non-CO2 greenhouse gases as input to the policy process. The model identifies baseline emission pathways to 2050 for the non-CO2 greenhouse gases methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and F-gases (HFCs, PFCs, SF6) as well as cost-effective mitigation pathways for each member state.
A methodology report is now available:
L. Höglund-Isaksson, W. Winiwarter and P. Purohit (2013), Non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, mitigation potentials and costs in the EU-28 from 2005 to 2050 : GAINS model methodology.
The European Commission's reference scenario outlines the development of the EU energy system to 2050 under current trends, taking account of the policies adopted on renewable energy, reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and promotion of energy efficiency:
EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends to 2050: Reference Scenario 2013
Last edited: 13 January 2014
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