Most human activity in the Arctic takes place along permafrost coasts and these coasts have become one of the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth. Permafrost thaw is exposing these coasts to rapid change, change that threatens the rich biodiversity, puts pressure on communities and contributes to the vulnerability of the global climate system. NUNATARYUK will determine the impacts of thawing coastal and subsea permafrost on the global climate, and will develop targeted and co-designed adaptation and mitigation strategies for the Arctic coastal population.
NUNATARYUK brings together world-leading specialists (26 partners from 11 countries) in natural science and socio-economics to:
IIASA is primarily involved in WP8: Modelling. The aim of WP8 is to implement knowledge and data synthesized in the project into the Earth System Modelling framework and to provide estimates of economic costs of permafrost thaw using Integrated Assessment modelling approach. Currently, despite the vast carbon stocks contained within land and subsea permafrost, it is either not represented at all in ESMs, or limited to a one dimensional description of the land permafrost without lateral exchange (Vonk and Gustafsson, 2013). The neglect of subsea permafrost, in particular, is a major weakness. Both sub-permafrost and intra- permafrost carbon stocks, whether in the form of buried vegetation/soil or as preformed greenhouse gas, are poorly constrained, in terms of distribution, amount and source (McGuire et al. 2009). WP8 aims at addressing these omissions.
Last edited: 12 September 2018
2017 - 2022
Quilcaille, Y, Gasser, T. , Ciais, P, Lecocq, F, Janssens-Maenhout, G, & Mohr, S (2018). Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors. Environmental Research Letters 13 (4), e044017. 10.1088/1748-9326/aab304.
Gasser, T. , Peters, G.P., Fuglestvedt, J.S., Collins, W.J., Shindell, D.T., & Ciais, P. (2017). Accounting for the climate-carbon feedback in emission metrics. Earth System Dynamics 8 (2), 235-253. 10.5194/esd-8-235-2017.
Jones, C.D., Ciais, P., Davis, S.J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J. , van Vuuren, D.P., et al. (2016). Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions. Environmental Research Letters 11 (9), e095012. 10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/095012.
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