A model to analyze near-term policies and their consequences for long-term objectives

A myopic or “limited foresight” version of the long-term energy system model MESSAGE was developed to  better understand the implications for energy system evolution under the conditions of short-term decision making.  


  • Myopic MESSAGE was developed by ENE under the umbrella of the Greenhouse Gas Initiative at IIASA

  • The model is applied to explore medium to long-term consequences of current policies

  • Results from the model were presented by IIASA at the 2009 Copenhagen Climate Conference.

In contrast to the traditional systems engineering and macro-economic energy models with perfect foresight, the new myopic model allows analysis of the implications of alternative planning horizons for decision making. It thus provides a suitable framework for exploring "path-dependency" and "lock-in-effects" in the energy system.

In particular, the framework is used for the explicit assessment of the consequences of short-term decisions for achieving long-term objectives. 

Print this page

Last edited: 19 July 2013


Keywan Riahi

Program Director


T +43(0) 2236 807 491

Volker Krey

Deputy Program Director


T +43(0) 2236 807 415


Rogelj J., D. McCollum, K. Riahi and B. O'Neill

(in preparation)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313