New climate pledges only slightly lower dangerous global warming projections

The new Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, finds that projected warming based on the full implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) now stands at 2.3–2.5°C, compared to 2.6–2.8°C in last year’s report. If only current policies are implemented, warming could reach up to 2.8°C, compared to 3.1°C last year.

However, methodological updates account for 0.1°C of the improvement, and the upcoming withdrawal of the US from the Paris Agreement will cancel another 0.1°C, meaning that the new NDCs themselves have barely moved the needle. Nations remain far from meeting the Paris Agreement goal to limit warming to well-below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to stay below 1.5°C.

The report finds that the multi-decadal average of global temperature rise will exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily. This will be difficult to reverse – requiring faster and bigger additional reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to minimize overshoot, reduce damages to lives and economies, and avoid over-reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods.

“Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of UNEP. “While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop. But it is still possible – just. Proven solutions already exist. From the rapid growth in cheap renewable energy to tackling methane emissions, we know what needs to be done. Now is the time for countries to go all in and invest in their future with ambitious climate action – action that delivers faster economic growth, better human health, more jobs, energy security and resilience.”

Off target
The report finds that only 60 Parties to the Paris Agreement, covering 63% of greenhouse gas emissions, had submitted or announced new NDCs containing mitigation targets for 2035 by 30 September 2025. In addition to the lack of progress in pledges, a huge implementation gap remains, with countries not on track to meet their 2030 NDCs, let alone new 2035 targets.

Aligning with the Paris Agreement requires rapid and unprecedented cuts to greenhouse gas emissions above the pledges – a task made harder by emissions growing 2.3% year-on-year to 57.7 gigatons of CO₂ equivalent in 2024. Emissions in 2030 would have to fall 25% from 2019 levels for 2°C pathways, and 40% for 1.5°C pathways – with only five years left to achieve this goal.

Full implementation of all NDCs would reduce expected global emissions in 2035 by about 15% compared with 2019 levels – although the US withdrawal will change these figures. These reductions are far below the 35% and 55% needed in 2035 to align with 2°C and 1.5°C pathways, respectively.

Pursuing 1.5°C remains critical
The size of the cuts required, and the short time left to deliver them, means that the multi-decadal average of global temperature will now exceed 1.5°C, very likely within the next decade. Stringent near-term cuts to emissions could delay the onset of overshoot, but not avoid it entirely. The key challenge is to ensure that any overshoot is temporary and minimal, through rapid action that keeps returning to 1.5°C by 2100 within reach.

Every fraction of a degree avoided reduces an escalation of the damages, losses and health impacts that are harming all nations – while hitting the poorest and most vulnerable the hardest – and reduces the risks of climate tipping points and other irreversible impacts. Minimizing overshoot would also reduce reliance on uncertain, risky and costly carbon dioxide removal methods – which would need to permanently remove and store about five years of current global annual CO₂ emissions to reverse each 0.1°C of overshoot.

The report looks at a "rapid mitigation action from 2025” scenario, which is designed to limit overshoot to about 0.3°C, with a 66 per cent chance, and return to 1.5°C by 2100. Under this scenario, 2030 emissions would have to fall by 26 per cent and 2035 emissions by 46 per cent compared with 2019 levels.

Tools there for faster action, but political climate challenging
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement ten years ago, temperature predictions have fallen from 3-3.5°C. The required low-carbon technologies to deliver big emission cuts are available. Wind and solar energy development is booming, lowering deployment costs. This means the international community can accelerate climate action, should they choose to do so. However, delivering faster cuts would require navigating a challenging geopolitical environment, a massive increase in support to developing countries, and redesigning the international financial architecture.

G20 action and leadership will be pivotal as G20 members – excluding the African Union – account for 77% of global emissions. Seven G20 members have submitted new NDCs with targets for 2035, while three members have announced such targets. However, these pledges are not ambitious enough, G20 members are collectively not on track to achieve even their 2030 NDC targets, and G20 emissions rose by 0.7% in 2024 – all pointing to the need for a massive ramp up in action by the biggest emitters.

IIASA’s contribution
IIASA Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions Research Group Leader, Shonali Pachauri, was involved in the preparation of the report as part of her role in the Steering Committee of the UNEP EGR, and IIASA senior research scholar, Joeri Roglj contributed as author on Chapter 4.

“The findings of this year’s Emissions Gap Report make it clear that incremental progress is no longer enough. To avert the worst impacts of climate change, countries must deliver transformative action that is both rapid and equitable. We have to accelerate the clean energy transition while ensuring no one is left behind,” Pachauri concludes.

Read the full report

Adapted from a press release prepared by PBL Netherlands. Read the original article here.