Reflections on how circular economy modelling research can better inform policy for the transition to net-zero

On 28 May 2026, CircEUlarCIRCOMOD and CO2NSTRUCT brought together more than 160 participants (90 online, 72 in person) from policymaking, research, industry and civil society for their joint final event, Modelling to Policy: Circular Economy Pathways Towards Net-Zero

Across the afternoon, participants repeatedly highlighted the need for a broader understanding of circular economy pathways. While policy discussions can sometimes focus on material recovery and recycling, the modelling evidence presented pointed to a much wider set of interventions, including sufficiency measures, service-focused solutions, lifetime extension, digitalization and behavioral changeCircular economy pathways can help Europe move further and faster towards net-zero. 

The discussions unearthed more questions and pointed to the need for better alignment between modelling and policy, more transparent assumptions, stronger evidence on behavioral and macroeconomic effects, and practical attention to skills, incentives, governance and policy cycle sequencing. Participants also reflected on the importance of broadening the policy conversation around circularity. While circular economy discussions often focus on recycling and waste management, the evidence presented throughout the event highlighted the significant role that sufficiency measures, service-based approaches, lifetime extension, digitalization and behavioral change can play in reducing material demand and emissions. 

The event also demonstrated both the value and the challenges of bringing together different modelling communities. Participants noted that closer coordination and synthesis of results could help strengthen future policy messages, while recognizing that each project was designed with distinct objectives, assumptions, methodologies and scales of analysis. The discussions also highlighted the complementary insights generated by different modelling approaches, including macroeconomic models, system-oriented models and material flow models, each of which illuminates different aspects of circular economy transitions and their implications for policy. At the same time, discussions highlighted that data availability remains a major constraint, particularly for material use, activity levels, building stocks and product lifetimes.

In this context, the collaboration between CircEUlar, CIRCOMOD and CO2NSTRUCT was seen as a clear strength. By sharing data and building on common evidence sources - including datasets on the European building stock – the projects were able to improve consistency and strengthen the overall evidence base. Rather than producing a single answer, these complementary perspectives provide a richer and more nuanced foundation for policymakers, helping to illuminate different pathways, trade-offs and implementation challenges. 

If you missed the event, or would like to revisit the plenary discussions, the recording is available on our YouTube channel: 

CircEUlar - CIRCOMOD - CO2NSTRUCT Final Conference © Source: circeular.org
CircEUlar - CIRCOMOD - CO2NSTRUCT Final Conference © Source: circeular.org

Adapted from a news item shared on the CircEUlar website.

News

dreamstime_l_151898459

20 August 2026

How can EU battery regulations help improve global sustainability governance in other sectors?

In a new paper, researchers explain how EU battery regulations can help lay the groundwork for a widely shared evidentiary system for global sustainability governance.
Navigating risk concept with arrows and exclamation marks

19 August 2026

Helping decision makers navigate climate risks

As climate impacts such as heatwaves, floods, and fires are intensifying worldwide, there is an urgent demand for information on how to respond. IIASA researchers and partners have developed a new tool that meets that need, integrating climate drivers, risks, and adaptation options in one framework grounded in IPCC science. It turns authoritative global climate assessments into guidance practitioners can use.
Business man stands before seven colorful doors. Faces big decision, crucial life career choice. Many paths, future possibilities await. Uncertainty choices presented for way forward in. AI generated

30 July 2026

From single projection to many possibilities: A new tool for climate risk assessment

Whether planning flood protection, food production, or financial investments, decisions about climate change should be based on an ensemble of projections as they depend on understanding the full range of plausible futures. IIASA researchers and partners have developed an open-source tool that makes it much faster to generate regional climate and impact projections while capturing the uncertainties that shape future climate risks.