Launch Events: NGFS Climate Scenarios Phase III

The NGFS scenarios provide a framework to assess and manage climate-related risks, by exploring the transition and physical impacts of climate change, over a long time horizon and under varying assumptions. In this third vintage, the NGFS scenarios have been brought up to date with an updated Set of climate scenarios, including the most recent country-level climate commitments made at the COP26 in 2021, and the latest GDP and population pathways. Additionally, a technical analytical document on the “Climate Scenarios Sensitivity Analysis to Macroeconomic Policy Assumptions” and a guidance note summarizing “Practical Lessons for the Development of Climate Scenarios with Extreme Weather Events from Emerging Markets and Developing Economies” have been released as accompanying documents.

The NGFS scenarios were developed in partnership with an academic consortium including the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Center for Global Sustainability at the University of Maryland (UMD), Climate Analytics (CA), and the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR).