IIASA Scientists have been invited to a workshop to explore how to improve the representation and usability of socio-political factors in the SSPs.

Enhancing the use of social science expertise is fundamental to the development of scenarios of climate and societal futures that are responsive to a wider range of challenges towards strong climate action and sustainability. In particular, there is an agreement that socio-political factors must inform scenarios and be integrated in scenarios in a more systematic way (cf. O’Neill et al. 2020). This need is especially pressing for the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which are employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments.

IIASA-ECE Scientists Bas van Ruijven, Elina Brutschin and Marina Andrijevic have been invitated to a workshop organized by the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) titled Exploring how to improve the representation and usability of socio-political factors in the SSPs: State of the science of “political futures”. The main objectives of the workshop are:

  • Mapping of the state of the science of existing approaches of future scenarios (short-term goal)
  • Define steps and agree on commitments to develop a structured and publishable model inter-comparison (mid-term goal)

The workshop is hold in Bonn, Germany, on the 24th and 25th October 2022 (see Agenda below).

Agenda workshop Exploring how to improve the representation and usability of socio-political factors in the SSPs: State of the science of “political futures”

Second day: 25th October

9:15-10:45 State of the science I: Existing sociopolitical futures

Presentation and discussion of three models (10 minutes each)
Moderator: Elisabeth Gilmore

  • Explanatory factors of institutional development
    Staffan Lindberg, V-Dem Institute (tbc)
  • Governance projection along SSPs (working title)
    Marina Andrijevic, IIASA
  • Political institutions along SSPs and SDP (working title)
    Constantin Ruhe, University Frankfurt, IDOS, Chris Wingens, IDOS and Julia Leininger, IDOS
  • Comments: Mark Roelfsema, PBL

11-12:30 State of the science II: Existing sociopolitical futures
Moderator: Halvard Buhau

  • Key drivers of armed conflict
    Håvard Strand, University of Oslo
  • Conflict scenarios and incorporating feedbacks into the economy
    Elisabeth Gilmore, PRIO and Carleton University
  • Explorations of integrating sociopolitical factors (working title)
    Elina Brutschin, IIASA
  • Violent conflict along SSPs and SDP (working title) [5 minutes]
    Constantin Ruhe, University Frankfurt, IDOS, Chris Wingens, IDOS and Julia Leininger, IDOS
  • Comments: Jessica Jewell

13:30-15:00 State of the science III: Existing sociopolitical futures
Moderator: Staffan Lindberg

  • Predicting the impact of armed conflict on vulnerability
    Paola Vesco, PRIO
  • Sociopolitical scenarios (working title)
    Jonathan Moyer, Denver University
  • Exogenous and endogenous societal development projections
    Halvard Buhaug, PRIO
  • Comments: Bas van Ruijven

15:15-16:45 Way ahead

Roundtable with all participants and structured discussion on the main insights of the “state of the art” and “indicator” sessions.

Moderator: Julia Leininger

16:45 End of workshop

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