ESM2025 is an ambitious European project on Earth System Modelling that aims to develop the next generation of Earth System Models (ESMs)

Developing a novel generation of ESMs will provide relevant climate simulations for the design of comprehensive climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, in line with the Paris Agreement. This next generation of ESMs will include an improved representation of the full Earth-system response to anthropogenic emissions, with a particular focus on human land-use change.

ESM2025 is funded by the H2020 European Commission programme for 4 years. Led by Météo France-CNRM, it is carried out by an interdisciplinary team of 20 partners from 7 countries across Europe (Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and the UK) and Australia. The team is composed of Earth-system scientists and model developers, experts in machine learning and data-driven hybrid modelling, model evaluation and feedback analysis, as well as specialists in integrated assessment models, climate education and science-policy communication.

Project activities are divided into 4 core themes, ranging from scientific activities to knowledge exchange and outreach. The first three core themes are dedicated to research activities (from component development, process parameterization, couplings, to interactions with the Integrated Assessment Modelling community); the 4th is devoted to the dissemination and exchange of knowledge with stakeholders and the general public. Interactions between the 4 core themes are facilitated by dedicated cross-cutting actions and decision-making boards that link the different activities of the project to ensure their smooth running.

IIASA is a key contributor to WP11+12 Improving reduced-complexity carbon-cycle and climate models, that are part of the third core theme that aims to connect improved high-complexity ESMs with Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) through the development and improvement of reduced-complexity models. IIASA also contributes to WP13 Assessment of robust and resilient climate action, that is part of the fourth core theme about operationalizing the Paris Agreement, outreach and knowledge exchange.

Partners

European Union © European Union

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme under Grant Agreement No 101003536.

Published papers:

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Li, M., Pelz, S. , Lamboll, R., Wang, C., & Rogelj, J. (2025). A principle-based framework to determine countries’ fair warming contributions to the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications 16 (1) 10.1038/s41467-025-56397-6. Smith, C. , Cummins, D.P., Fredriksen, H.-B., Nicholls, Z. , Meinshausen, M., Allen, M., Jenkins, S., Leach, N., Mathison, C., & Partanen, A.-I. (2024). fair-calibrate v1.4.1: calibration, constraining, and validation of the FaIR simple climate model for reliable future climate projections. Geoscientific Model Development 17 (23) 8569-8592. 10.5194/gmd-17-8569-2024. He, Y., Piao, S., Ciais, P., Xu, H., & Gasser, T. (2024). Future land carbon removals in China consistent with national inventory. Nature Communications 15 (1) e10426. 10.1038/s41467-024-54846-2. 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Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy. Earth System Dynamics 15 (5) 1319-1351. 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024. MacDougall, A.H., Rogelj, J. , Jones, C.D., Liddicoat, S.K., & Grassi, G. (2024). Detecting climate milestones on the path to climate stabilization. Environmental Research Letters 19 (7) e074065. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad5ab1. Meinshausen, M., Schleussner, C.-F., Beyer, K., Bodeker, G., Boucher, O., Canadell, J.G., Daniel, J.S., Diongue-Niang, A., Driouech, F., Fischer, E., Forster, P., Grose, M., Hansen, G., Hausfather, Z., Ilyina, T., Kikstra, J. , Kimutai, J., King, A.D., Lee, J.-Y., Lennard, C., Lissner, T., Nauels, A., Peters, G.P., Pirani, A., Plattner, G.-K., Pörtner, H., Rogelj, J. , Rojas, M., Roy, J., Samset, B.H., Sanderson, B.M., Séférian, R., Seneviratne, S., Smith, C. , Szopa, S., Thomas, A., Urge-Vorsatz, D., Velders, G.J.M., Yokohata, T., Ziehn, T., & Nicholls, Z. (2024). 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Lamb, W.F., Gasser, T. , Roman-Cuesta, R.M., Grassi, G., Gidden, M. , Powis, C.M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Pratama, Y., Riahi, K. , Smith, S.M., Steinhauser, J. , Vaughan, N.E., Smith, H.B., & Minx, J.C. (2024). The carbon dioxide removal gap. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-01984-6. Xiong (熊元康), Y., Wang (王戎), R., Gasser, T. , Ciais, P., Peñuelas, J., Sardans, J., Clark, J. H., Cao (曹军骥), J., Xing (邢晓帆), X., Xu (徐思清), S., Deng (邓艺菲), Y., Wang (王琳), L., Chen (陈建民), J., Tang (汤绪), X., & Zhang (张人禾), R. (2024). Potential impacts of pandemics on global warming, agricultural production, and biodiversity loss. One Earth 7 1-17. 10.1016/j.oneear.2024.02.012. Bossy, T., Gasser, T. , Lecocq, F., Bednar, J., Tanaka, K., & Ciais, P. (2024). Least-cost and 2 °C-compliant mitigation pathways robust to physical uncertainty, economic paradigms, and intergenerational cost distribution. Environmental Research: Climate 3 (2) e025005. 10.1088/2752-5295/ad34a8. Nakhavali, A., Lauerwald, R., Regnier, P., & Friedlingstein, P. (2024). Historical trends and drivers of the laterally transported terrestrial dissolved organic carbon to river systems. Science of the Total Environment 917 e170560. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170560. Cox, P.M., Williamson, M.S., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, C.D., Raoult, N., Rogelj, J. , & Varney, R.M. (2024). Emergent constraints on carbon budgets as a function of global warming. Nature Communications 15 (1) e1885. 10.1038/s41467-024-46137-7. Rogelj, J. & Lamboll, R.D. (2024). Substantial reductions in non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions reductions implied by IPCC estimates of the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment 5 (1) e35. 10.1038/s43247-023-01168-8. Jones, C.D., Ziehn, T., Anand, J., Bastos, A., Burke, E., Canadell, J.G., Cardoso, M., Ernst, Y., Jain, A.K., Jeong, S., Keller, E.D., Kondo, M., Lauerwald, R., Lin, T.‐S., Murray‐Tortarolo, G., Nabuurs, G.‐J., O’Sullivan, M., Poulter, B., Qin, X., von Randow, C., Sanches, M., Shchepashchenko, D. , Shvidenko, A., Smallman, T.L., Tian, H., Villalobos, Y., Wang, X., & Yun, J. (2023). RECCAP2 Future Component: Consistency and Potential for Regional Assessment to Constrain Global Projections. AGU Advances 4 (6) e2023AV001024. 10.1029/2023AV001024. Gidden, M. , Gasser, T. , Grassi, G., Forsell, N., Janssens, I., Lamb, W., Minx, J., Nicholls, Z. , Steinhauser, J. , & Riahi, K. (2023). Aligning climate scenarios to emissions inventories shifts global benchmarks. Nature 624 102-108. 10.1038/s41586-023-06724-y. Lamboll, R.D., Nicholls, Z.R.J. , Smith, C.J. , Kikstra, J.S. , Byers, E. , & Rogelj, J. (2023). Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets. Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01848-5. Obermeier, W.A., Schwingshackl, C., Bastos, A., Conchedda, G., Gasser, T. , Grassi, G., Houghton, R.A., Sitch, S., & Pongratz, J. (2023). Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry. 10.5281/zenodo.8144173. Jones, M.W., Peters, G.P., Gasser, T. , Andrew, R.M., Schwingshackl, C., Gütschow, J., Houghton, R.A., Friedlingstein, P., Pongratz, J., & Le Quéré, C. (2023). National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850. Scientific Data 10 (1) e155. 10.1038/s41597-023-02041-1. Rogelj, J. (2023). Net zero targets in science and policy. Environmental Research Letters 18 (2) e021003. 10.1088/1748-9326/acb4ae.