Climate Change and Human (Im)Mobility: The Role of Compound and Cascading Risks (2C-RISK)

Climate change is increasingly affecting global populations through extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and ecosystem degradation, impacting human mobility by influencing livelihoods, security, and well-being. While climate-related risks can drive migration and displacement, they can also lead to immobility, trapping vulnerable populations in high-risk environments. Mobility outcomes are shaped by multiple interacting factors, yet current research lacks a comprehensive understanding of how compound and cascading risks jointly influence mobility and immobility over time and space.

Background and innovative contribution of the 2C-RISK project

The 2C-RISK project addresses critical gaps in understanding climate-related (im)mobility by examining when, how, and why households move—or remain immobile—under climatic and non-climatic stressors. Unlike previous research, which often isolates environmental factors, this project takes a comprehensive approach by integrating underrecognized risks, co-stressors, and insecurities. Its innovative contributions include high-resolution data integration, the use of digital trace data, the first global assessment of immobile populations, and novel modeling techniques for nowcasting and projecting climate-driven mobility. By bridging these knowledge gaps, 2C-RISK will provide valuable insights for policy-making and resilience-building in vulnerable communities.

Project Goals

• Analyzing the impact of climate risks on mobility
• Understanding the role of compound and cascading risk factors
• Exploring and quantifying immobility worldwide
• Exploring regional and socioeconomic variations
• Develop future projections and nowcasting mobility in high-risk situations

Methodological Approach

The 2C-RISK project employs a multi-scale analysis, integrating longitudinal data across various levels to examine how compound and cascading risks influence mobility and immobility. It develops novel empirical estimates, leverages advanced data sources to quantify immobility, analyzes regional and demographic differences to identify vulnerable groups, and utilizes traditional and digital trace data to enhance predictive modeling. By addressing critical knowledge gaps, the project aims to improve our understanding of climate-related (im)mobility and inform policies that enhance resilience in affected communities.

The 2C-RISK project consists of four complementary work packages that examine climate-related (im)mobility and the role of compounding and cascading risks. It integrates macro-level analyses to compare regional and population-specific impacts and micro-level analyses to explore individual mobility decisions in local contexts. Differential vulnerabilities and impacts are a cross-cutting theme, ensuring a comprehensive understanding of mobility dynamics across diverse settings.