UPDATE OF THE HUMAN CORE OF THE SSPs: POPULATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL PROJECTIONS TO 2100

The first set of population projections following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) was developed in 2013, and was documented in Oxford University Press book "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century"  edited by Wolfgang Lutz, William Butz and Samir KC (WIC2013). These projections have found widespread use within the environmental and climate change community, among others. In 2018, an SSPs update was generated in collaboration with the European Commission Joint Research Centre (report) but not integrated into the SSP database (WIC2018). In 2021, the SSP community requested an update of the human core of the SSPs. This updated version is based on 2020 as the reference year, with adjustments to certain short-term assumptions extending to 2030. Consequently, the assumptions' trend component is grounded in recent observed changes.

The modeling approaches for fertility, mortality, and educational attainment have been revised. Notably, there are updates to education-specific fertility rates with new estimates. Education-specific mortality has been made specific to countries and regions. Additionally, this version introduces explicit education-specific migration differentials. The updates are documented in a working paper by KC et al. (2024). The paper presents a comparison between the methodology used for developing the global population and education projections under the five SSPs and the previous method. Furthermore, a brief analysis is conducted on the primary results regarding population size and composition, with comparisons made to earlier projections and other organizations, including the United Nations Population Division.

Overall, and according to SSP2, which is the middle of the road scenario, the world would peak in 2080 at 10.13 billion and slowly decline after that to reach 9.88 billion in 2100. Compared to the previous exercises, the world population would peak later and at higher level of total population. WIC2018 had its peak happening in 2070 at 9.7 billion, with the world population at the end of the century at 9.3 billion. WIC2013 again projected lower population growth, peaking at 9.4 billion in 2070 and declining to 8.9 billion by 2100.

Data are available for 200 countries, by age, sex and education levels according to 7 scenarios: SSP1 to 5 to and SSP2 combined with zero migration and double migration.

The updated data and graphics are available in the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer at this link https://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v3/  (beta version) and in Zenodo (v.13) https://zenodo.org/records/10618931

For more information, please contact Samir KC or Anne Goujon.

 

Related Publication

News

War in Ukraine. Little girl on mom`s shoulder. Refugees from the evacuation train from Mariupol, Berdyansk, Kryvyi Rih

10 July 2024

Latest European Demographic Data Sheet highlights lasting impact of war and migration

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent displacement of millions of people will have a significant impact on the country’s long-term population structure. Researchers from the Austrian Academy of Sciences, IIASA, and the University of Vienna are forecasting a substantial population decline of 21-31% by 2052.
Justice

09 July 2024

IIASA Justice Framework

The IIASA/EQU Justice Framework is now available on the IIASA website and as a IIASA working paper.
nature based solutions (NbS)

13 June 2024

Finance Innovation Festival shines a spotlight on Nature-based Solutions and Insurance

The Finance Innovation Festival took place at IIASA on May 23-24. The hybrid event featured 44 speakers in plenary and discussion sessions and attracted 119 participants.