A host of scientific chemistry and climate model experiments explore responses of the global atmosphere and climate systems to possible future changes in emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases. The Pollution Management research group (formerly AIR program) has used its GAINS model to develop a set of global emission fields of nine substances that provide consistent sets of future sectoral emissions for well-specified assumptions on economic development and the effectiveness of dedicated emission control policies.

Emission sources:

Anthropogenic sources including international shipping (from version V5 onwards) and open burning of agricultural residue.

The emissions sets exclude some sources which can be acquired from a number of recognized studies/resources:

  • The biogenic emissions could be taken from (Gunther et al., 2012).
  • The forest and savannah fires from GFED (van de Werf et al., 2010) or from alternative remote sensing products, e.g., FINN (Wiedinmyer et al., 2011), GFAS (Kaiser et al., 2012).
  • Global aviation emission sets were developed by Lee et al (2009) and were used in the development of the Regional Concentration Pathways (RCP) (Van Vuuren et al., 2011).
  • As indicated above, prior to version V5, the emissions from international shipping are not part of the emission set and we recommended to acquire them from the sources used in RCP, i.e., Buhaug et al. (2009) and Eyring et al. (2010).
Pollutants:

All outputs in thousand tons of pollutant per year/grid; except carbon dioxide (CO2) for which global totals are provided

  • Sulphur dioxide (as SO2)
  • Nitrogen oxides (as NO2)
  • Non-methane volatile organic compounds (as VOC)
  • Ammonia (as NH3)
  • Carbon monoxide (as CO)
  • Methane (as CH4)
  • Primary fine particulate matter distinguishing the following components: PM2.5, PM10, black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and organic matter (OM) where OM=OC*x and typically BC+OM<PM2.5

In addition, for the ECLIPSE V5 Reference scenario, particle number emissions have been estimated by size distribution and gridded:

  • Global particulate number emission fields (see below ECLIPSE V5 (Particle numbers)).
Scenarios:

Depending on the version (see below), a number of scenarios are provided for which the key economic assumptions and energy use originate from IEA World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2011), the POLES model, or Energy Technology Perspectives (IEA, 2012) for the period 2010-2050, while statistical data for the period 1990-2010 came from IEA. For agriculture the FAO databases and long-term global projections were used (Alexandratos and Bruinsma, 2012). Additionally, for the European Union the data and results from the review of the National Emission Ceiling Directive work (Amann et al., 2012, 2015) were used.

Temporal distribution:

Total annual values (in five year intervals until 2030) as well as monthly profiles of emissions; the latter are provided as monthly shares for each grid.

Spatial distribution:

0.5o x 0.5o longitude-latitude; Global total and key sectoral totals. The following sector-layers are available: energy, industry, solvent use, transport, domestic combustion, agriculture, open burning of agricultural waste, waste treatment.

Basic grid patterns originate from Global Energy Assessment (GEA, 2012) but were enhanced and further developed by the authors for several sectors or specific activities, e.g., non-ferrous metals, livestock, mineral fertilizer use. Furthermore, for gas flaring the data on location of flares from NOAA/GGFR (World Bank) were used (Elvidge et al., 2011), QUANTIFY project results were utilised for international shipping, and for the Chinese power sector data from the MEIC system (Tsinghua University, Qiang Zhang personal communication) were provided.

Format:

NetCDF (Network Common Data Form)

 

Available Datasets:

Version (Date) Period covered Scenarios                                         

    ECLIPSE V6b (August 2019) 1990-2030, 2040, 2050 - Reference (assuming current legislation for air pollution - CLE),

    - Maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR)

    ECLIPSE V6b global emission fields

    Global NOx emissions 2005

    The ECLIPSE V6b set of emissions data features a number of updates in comparison to previous versions:

    • Improved regional resolution, specifically in Africa
    • general update of legislation and historical data (especially 2015)
    • China 13th 5-year plan
    • new waste sector
    • inclusion of soil NOx
    • revised international shipping
    • macroeconomic and energy scenarios based on WEO (IEA, 2018)
    • EU-28 updated (Amann et al., 2018)
    • gridding patterns updated for several sectors, including power plants, flaring, transport, industry
    ECLIPSE V6b Baseline scenario (CLE)

    Gridded emissions (netcdf4 format) of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, OM, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    Download SO2 emissions Download NOx emissions Download NH3 emissions
    Download nmVOC emissions Download PM2.5 emissions Download PM10 emissions
    Download BC emissions Download OC emissions Download OM emissions
    Download CO emissions Download CH4 emissions  
     
    ECLIPSE V6b Maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR)

    Gridded emissions (netcdf4 format) of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, OM, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    Download SO2 emissions Download NOx emissions Download NH3 emissions
    Download nmVOC emissions Download PM2.5 emissions Download PM10 emissions
    Download BC emissions Download OC emissions Download OM emissions
    Download CO emissions Download CH4 emissions  
     
    Revised (August 2020) shipping emissions (Baseline CLE)

    The revision included a wider range of emission factors for PM components, resulting in higher emissions of these species.

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

     

    EU-funded Action on Black Carbon in the Arctic

    EU-funded Action on Black Carbon in the Arctic

    ECLIPSE V5a (July 2015) 1990-2030, 2040, 2050 - Reference (assuming current legislation for air pollution - CLE),

    - Short lived climate pollutants mitigation (SLCP),

    - Maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR),

    - Climate scenario (2 degrees, CLE)

    ECLIPSE V5a global emission fields

    Global NOx emissions 2005

    This set draws on similar assumptions and data as V5 but there are  a number of updates.

    For the European Union the final set of assumptions used in the NEC revision scenarios is used (status as in the TSAP report #16; Amann et al., 2015).

    The spatial allocation of emissions from non-ferrous smelters has been updated.

    There are several updates to current legislation including: cement production, transport, and, most of all, introduction of the 12th Five Year Plan for China (the previous ECLIPSE set included interpretation of the 11th Plan).

    Latin America and the Caribbean have been completely redone, as we introduced several new regions (most countries are now represented) for which an update of statistics and projections and more region-specific parameterization have been carried out.

    Oil and gas industry losses updated globally (better consistency between venting and flaring volumes and also using more region-specific information on properties of APG (associated petroleum gas) leading to regional emission factors.

    Update to OC emissions from residential combustion in Asia, Africa, Latin America (version V5 appears to have high values).

    Error in activity data for wood burning in Canada corrected; local Canadian data were used in V4a but in V5 that information was erroneously replaced by FAO/IEA data – in V5a the same historical numbers as in the V4a are used again.

    Climate scenario relying on the IEA (2012) 2 degree projection for energy implemented in GAINS.

    ECLIPSE V5a Baseline scenario (CLE)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5a max technical feasible reduction scenario (MTFR)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5a Mitigation scenario (SLCP)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5a Climate scenario (2 degrees, CLE)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5a Flaring emissions (Baseline CLE & Mitigation SLCP)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4
    from gas flaring. N.B. These emissions are included within the energy sector in the corresponding data sets available above; they are repeated as a separate sub-sector here for modelling studies that would make use of them.

    Shipping emissions (Baseline CLE, Mitigation SLCP & MTFR scenarios)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5 (April 2014) 1990-2030, 2040, 2050 - Reference (assuming current legislation for air pollution - CLE),

    - No further control (NFC).

    - Short lived climate pollutants mitigation (SLCP)

    ECLIPSE V5 global emission fields

    Global NOx emissions 2005

    The V5 set is an update and extension of the V4a set and was used extensively in the ECLIPSE project simulations.

    Extension of the whole time horizon and emissions available in five-year intervals from 1990 to 2030.

    The historical data for the period 1990-2010 were revised compared to preceding sets using the latest IAE and FAO statistics extending to 2010, as well as recent country reporting where available.

    International shipping is included and draws on the work of the QUANTIFY project for historical data while adding internally developed activity projections and mitigation cases.

    The baseline activity data for the projections originate from the Energy Technology Perspectives study (IEA, 2012) for the whole time horizon until 2050. In terms of CO2, the baseline is comparable to the RCP6.0 scenario.

    For the European Union, the data and assumptions used in the revision of the NEC Directive are used, including PRIMES and CAPRI model projections of activities at a country level – status of April 2015.

    The NFC scenario assumes a freeze on the introduction of new policies after 2015 in OECD countries and after 2010 in other countries.

    The SLCP mitigation case follows the logic of the reduction case targeting black carbon and ozone mitigation as described in the UNEP/WMO (2011) and Shindell et al. (2012).

    ECLIPSE V5 Baseline scenario (CLE)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5 Mitigation scenario (SLCP)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5 'No further control' scenario (NFC)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5 Flaring emissions (Baseline CLE)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4
    from gas flaring. N.B. These emissions are included within the energy sector in the corresponding data sets available above; they are repeated as a separate sub-sector here for modelling studies that would make use of them.

    ECLIPSE V5 Temporal distribution of emissions

    Temporal profiles of emissions provided as monthly shares for each grid.

    Shipping emissions (Baseline CLE, Mitigation SLCP & NFC scenarios)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, PM10, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V5 (Particle numbers)
    Global particle number emissions

    Beyond particle mass and chemical composition, the particle number and number size distribution are relevant metrics for health impacts as well as for aerosol-climate interactions.

    The GAINS model has been further developed to include size-specific particulate number parametrization, which allows estimating particle number (PN) emissions consistent with the mass-based PM emission calculated for a specific scenario (IR-13-020; Paasonen et al., 2016). A first PN inventory for Europe was developed by Denier van der Gon et al., (2009) in the EU FP6 project EUCAARI (Kulmala et al., 2011). The respective methodology and emission factors have been further developed in a co-operation between the University of Helsinki (Finland), IIASA, TNO (the Netherlands), and the Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), resulting in a global PN emission dataset.

    Total anthropogenic PN emissions in 2010 (left panel) and the normalized number size distributions for different regions (right panel); Paasonen et al., 2016.

    So far, one set of global particle number (PN) emissions has been calculated and it draws on the current legislation scenario developed within the EU FP7 framework project ECLIPSE (Stohl, et, al., 2015). The results presented here rely on the ECLIPSE V5 scenario (Klimont et al., in preparation) and are provided for the years 2010, 2020 and 2030. The particle number emissions are divided into 11 main source sectors and eight size bins, covering the particle diameters from 3 nm to 1000 nm (i.e. from 0.003 to 1 µm). The PN emissions and their size distributions include both the actual primary PN emissions and, depending on the existing literature for each source, the particles formed immediately after the introduction of the trace gases into the atmosphere.

    ECLIPSE V5 Baseline scenario (CLE)

    Gridded particle number emissions by size distribution

    References

    • Paasonen, P., Kupiainen, K., Klimont, Z., Visshedijk, A., Denier van der Gon, H. A. C., and Amann, M.: Continental anthropogenic primary particle number emissions, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 6823–6840, doi:10.5194/acp-16-6823-2016, 2016.
    • Denier van der Gon, H. A. C., Visschedijk, A. J. H., Johansson, C., Hedberg Larsson, E., Harrison, R., and Beddows, D.: Size-resolved pan European anthropogenic particle number inventory, EUCAARI Deliverable report D141 (available on request from EUCAARI project office), 2009.
    • Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Heyes, C., Purohit, P., Cofala, J., Rafaj, P., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Schoepp, W. Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon. In preparation.
    • Klimont, Z., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Heyes, C., Rafaj, P., Schöpp, W., Cofala, J., Purohit, P., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Kupiainen, K., Kiesewetter, G., Winiwarter, W., Amann, M, Zhao, B., Wang, S.X., Bertok, I., Sander, R. Global scenarios of air pollutants and methane: 1990-2050. In preparation.
    • Kulmala, M., Asmi, A., Lappalainen, H. K., Baltensperger, U., Brenguier, J.-L., Facchini, M. C., Hansson, H.-C., Hov, Ø., O'Dowd, C. D., Pöschl, U., Wiedensohler, A., Boers, R., Boucher, O., de Leeuw, G., Denier van der Gon, H. A. C., Feichter, J., Krejci, R., Laj, P., Lihavainen, H., Lohmann, U., McFiggans, G., Mentel, T., Pilinis, C., Riipinen, I., Schulz, M., Stohl, A., Swietlicki, E., Vignati, E., Alves, C., Amann, M., Ammann, M., Arabas, S., Artaxo, P., Baars, H., Beddows, D. C. S., Bergström, R., Beukes, J. P., Bilde, M., Burkhart, J. F., Canonaco, F., Clegg, S. L., Coe, H., Crumeyrolle, S., D'Anna, B., Decesari, S., Gilardoni, S., Fischer, M., Fjaeraa, A. M., Fountoukis, C., George, C., Gomes, L., Halloran, P., Hamburger, T., Harrison, R. M., Herrmann, H., Hoffmann, T., Hoose, C., Hu, M., Hyvärinen, A., Hõrrak, U., Iinuma, Y., Iversen, T., Josipovic, M., Kanakidou, M., Kiendler-Scharr, A., Kirkevåg, A., Kiss, G., Klimont, Z., Kolmonen, P., Komppula, M., Kristjánsson, J.-E., Laakso, L., Laaksonen, A., Labonnote, L., Lanz, V. A., Lehtinen, K. E. J., Rizzo, L. V., Makkonen, R., Manninen, H. E., McMeeking, G., Merikanto, J., Minikin, A., Mirme, S., Morgan, W. T., Nemitz, E., O'Donnell, D., Panwar, T. S., Pawlowska, H., Petzold, A., Pienaar, J. J., Pio, C., Plass-Duelmer, C., Prévôt, A. S. H., Pryor, S., Reddington, C. L., Roberts, G., Rosenfeld, D., Schwarz, J., Seland, Ø., Sellegri, K., Shen, X. J., Shiraiwa, M., Siebert, H., Sierau, B., Simpson, D., Sun, J. Y., Topping, D., Tunved, P., Vaattovaara, P., Vakkari, V., Veefkind, J. P., Visschedijk, A., Vuollekoski, H., Vuolo, R., Wehner, B., Wildt, J., Woodward, S., Worsnop, D. R., van Zadelhoff, G.-J., Zardini, A. A., Zhang, K., van Zyl, P. G., Kerminen, V.-M., S Carslaw, K., and Pandis, S. N.: General overview: European Integrated project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality interactions (EUCAARI) – integrating aerosol research from nano to global scales, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 13061-13143, doi:10.5194/acp-11-13061-2011, 2011.
    • Stohl, A., Aamaas, B., Amann, M., Baker, L. H., Bellouin, N., Berntsen, T. K., Boucher, O., Cherian, R., Collins, W., Daskalakis, N., Dusinska, M., Eckhardt, S., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Harju, M., Heyes, C., Hodnebrog, Ø., Hao, J., Im, U., Kanakidou, M., Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Law, K. S., Lund, M. T., Maas, R., MacIntosh, C. R., Myhre, G., Myriokefalitakis, S., Olivié, D., Quaas, J., Quennehen, B., Raut, J.-C., Rumbold, S. T., Samset, B. H., Schulz, M., Seland, Ø., Shine, K. P., Skeie, R. B., Wang, S., Yttri, K. E., and Zhu, T.: Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 15, 10529-10566, doi:10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015, 2015.

    ECLIPSE V4a (January 2014) 2005, 2010, 2030, 2050 - Reference (assuming current legislation for air pollution – CLE),

    - Maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR)

    ECLIPSE V4a global emission fields

    Global NOx emissions 2005

    The data for the historical years are largely consistent with the V3 set but for Europe the updated estimates during the NEC review process (Amann et al., 2012) were used.

    The activity scenario for 2030 relies on the energy projection from IEA (2011) while for 2050 it uses the POLES model results which are consistent with the shorter term IEA Energy Outlook at the larger scale.

    From June 2014, the emission sets have been also made available via the GEIA/ECCAD portal where a more detailed description of the scenarios and background data can be found

    ECLIPSE V4a Baseline

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V4a Maximum technically feasible reductions (MTFR)

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, CO, CH4

    ECLIPSE V3 (November 2013) 2005, 2008, 2009, 2010 No future scenarios were developed                             
    ECLIPSE V3 global emission fields

    Global NOx emissions 2005

    While 2005 activity data and originates from statistical data, the 2010 is based on preliminary data from IEA World Energy Outlook (IEA, 2011).

    The 2008 and 2009 emissions are not based on the full GAINS model calculation but were developed using proxies describing changes in the period between 2005 and 2010; specifically country-specific and regional changes in energy use (relying on IEA and BP energy balances), emissions reported to the international bodies like UNECE and UNFCCC, emissions reported by national centres, data from International Monetary Fund (IMF) about GDP.

    The emission sets were used in a number of regional simulations in the ECLIPSE project in order to validate them against measurements.

    ECLIPSE V3 Baseline

    Gridded emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3, nmVOC, BC, OC, PM2.5, CO, CH4

     
    How to reference?

    A paper providing a comprehensive description of the PM emissions is available:

    • Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Heyes, C., Purohit, P., Cofala, J., Rafaj, P., Borken-Kleefeld, J. and Schöpp, W. (2017). Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 17, 8681-8723.
      https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-8681-2017.

    A further background paper describing the emission projections is in preparation for ACPD:

    • Klimont, Z., Höglund-Isaksson, L., Heyes, C., Rafaj, P., Schöpp, W., Cofala, J., Purohit, P., Borken-Kleefeld, J., Kupiainen, K., Kiesewetter, G., Winiwarter, W., Amann, M, Zhao, B., Wang, S.X., Bertok, I., Sander, R. Global scenarios of air pollutants and methane: 1990-2050. In preparation.

    In addition, reference may be made to this webpage, the GAINS model (Amann et al., 2011), and the ECLIPSE project, (see text below, the Acknowledgements and Bibliography). As the background publication is submitted, the reference above will be updated.

    Some elements of this global emission set have been documented already in published papers on

    • sulphur dioxide emissions in the last decade (Klimont et al., 2013);
    • methane (Höglund-Isaksson, 2012);
    • comparison of GAINS global projections to RCP (Amann et al., 2013):
    • exploring the impact of the residential sector and gas flaring using the V4a set (Stohl et al., 2013).

    Recently the summary paper on the ECLIPSE project (using the V5 data set) has been published in ACP (Stohl et al., 2015) and it includes brief discussion of the scenarios.
     

    Acknowledgments:
    • European Commission 7th Framework funded projects:
      • ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) Project no. 282688.
      • PEGASOS (Pan-European Gas-Aerosols-Climate Interaction Study) Project no. 265148.
      • ‘Assessment of hemispheric air pollution on EU air policy’ contract no. 07.0307/2011/605671/SER/C3.
    • Qiang Zhang from Tsinghua University (Beijing, China) for the spatial distribution of Chinese power plants for 2000, 2005, and 2010.
    • Uwe Remme from the International Energy Agency (IEA) for support in interpretation of the energy projections in the Energy Technology Perspectives (IEA, 2012) study.
       
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