
This Scenario Explorer presents an ensemble of quantitative, model-based climate change mitigation pathways underpinning the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published in 2018. The ensemble was also used and extended in the IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL, 2019).

As part of the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), an assessment of quantitative, model-based climate change mitigation pathways was conducted. To support the assessment, the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) facilitated a coordinated and systematic community effort by inviting modelling teams to submit their available 1.5°C and related scenarios to a curated database. The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC SR15, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC.
The scenario ensemble contains more than 400 emissions pathways with underlying socio-economic development, energy system transformations and land use change until the end of the century, submitted by over a dozen research teams from around the world. The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than May 15, 2018, or published in a report determined by the IPCC to be eligible grey literature by the same date.
Usage in the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C
Many figures, tables and quantitative assessment in the IPCC's Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15, 2018) are based directly on this scenario ensemble, including Figure SPM 3a shown blow.
The open-source notebooks to generate figures and statistics are available here.
Usage in the IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land
The scenario ensemble was also used in the IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL, 2019) and extended by several timeseries on prices related to agriculture. To acknowledge the significant contribution by several authors of the SRCCL regarding the additional analysis and extension of the scenario ensemble, the list of authors was amended with Release 2.0 and a new DOI was issued for the extended data.