This discussion series aims to advance the knowledge about tipping elements, irreversibility, and abrupt changes in the Earth system. It supports efforts to increase consistency in treatment of tipping elements in the scientific community, develop a research agenda, and design joint experiments and ideas for a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

red planet © Luis Louro | Dreamstime.com

This discussion series is a joint activity of the Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) global research project of Future Earth, the Earth Commission Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) under the Global Commons Alliance and the Safe Landing Climates Light House Activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP). IIASA is co-hosting the scientific secretariat of WG1 of the Earth Commission. 

The first event in the series provides an overall introduction. The next discussions will then dive into one Earth system tipping element in detail, i.e., Amazon rainforest. The events (60-90min each) will be held monthly and are open to the public:

  • 1st event September: Introduction (details below)
  • 2nd event October: Cryosphere (details forthcoming)
  • 3rd event November: Permafrost (details forthcoming)
  • 4th event December: Amazon (details forthcoming)

 

1st discussion on Monday, September 20, 21 12:00-1:30pm CEST


  • Introduction and objectives of the webinar series – Steven Sherwood and Ricarda Winkelmann (tbc) (5min)
  • An update on tipping elements in the climate system – Tim Lenton (20min)
  • Extreme events in a changing climate. Insights from IPCC AR6 (tbc) - Sonia Seneviratne (20min)
  • Questions and discussion (20min)

The final 25min have been reserved for informal discussions on the research agenda and the development of a Tipping Element Model Intercomparison Project (TipMip).

The recording of the event is available on youtube:

Organizing Institutions

Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System AIMES

The Analysis, Integration, and Modeling of the Earth System (AIMES) project is an international network of Earth system scientists and scholars that seek to develop innovative, interdisciplinary ways to understand the complexity of the natural world and its interactions with human activities.

Through international science coordination and partnerships, AIMES addresses questions beyond the remit of a single institution or discipline to understand the complex interactions between biogeochemistry, Earth system dynamics, and socio-economic conditions under global environmental change. This strategy requires a new level of coordination between disciplinary or process-focused modeling and observations in order to make progress in understanding, predicting, and managing the Earth as an integrated system. AIMES is a global research project of Future Earth.  

Earth Commission 

The Earth Commission is a global team of scientists with the mission to define a safe and just corridor for people and planet. Working Group 1 Earth and Human Systems Intercomparison Modelling Project (EHSMIP) of the Earth Commission  will identify, assess and model key interactions that regulate the state of the planetary (i.e., the physical climate system, the cryosphere, oceans, terrestrial biosphere systems, cycles of water, nutrients and carbon), and human systems. This will inform setting targets for a stable and safe planet, and will help us in developing and understanding pathways that are compatible with these targets.

The scientific guardrails defined by the Earth Commission will guide the Science Based Targets Network in developing tangible science-based targets tailored to cities and companies.  The Earth Commission is hosted by Future Earth, the world’s largest network of sustainability scientists, and is the scientific cornerstone of the Global Commons Alliance. 

World Climate Research Program WCRP Safe Landing Climates 

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) The Safe Landing Climates Lighthouse Activity is an exploration of the routes to “safe landing” spaces for human and natural systems. It will explore future pathways that avoid dangerous climate change while at the same time contributing to the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including those of climate action, zero hunger, clean water and sanitation, good health and well-being, affordable and clean energy, and healthy ecosystems above and below water. The relevant time scale is multi-decadal to millennial. This event is part of a WCRP Light House Activity.

 

Upcoming Events

23 May 2022 Vienna, Austria and online

IIASA at EGU 2022

24 May 2022 IIASA, Laxenburg

Korea University and IIASA Workshop

24 May 2022 Virtual event -Zoom

IIASA Climate Migration Policy Simulation

25 May 2022 Delivered online via Zoom

Mary Douglas Memorial Lecture

26 May 2022 Boston University Pardee School of Global Studies

U.S. and IIASA Workshop on 50 Years of Building Research Bridges

02 June 2022 Hybrid Meeting

Finland and IIASA Seminar on Systems Analysis