The Forum on Scenarios for Climate and Societal Futures is a hybrid online and in-person forum bringing together a diverse set of communities who are using or developing scenarios for use in climate change and sustainability analysis to exchange experiences, ideas, and lessons learned. Opportunities for synergies and collaboration will be identified as well as knowledge gaps for future research.
By taking stock of recent progress, the use of scenarios in recent environmental assessments (IPCC, IPBES, National Assessment), and facilitating further scenario-related research, this meeting will inform the use of scenarios in the preparation for the next cycle of IPCC Assessment Reports (AR7) and help ensure a research base sufficient to inform future national and international assessments as well as policy initiatives, including the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
An important, but not exclusive, focus of the meeting will be the ongoing process of developing, updating and using the so-called “scenarios framework” for fostering integrated climate change and sustainability research. As part of that framework, a new set of societal futures, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), has been developed and used by integrated assessment models to produce a first set of global energy, land use, and emissions scenarios based on them. Climate models, mainly through CMIP6 ScenarioMIP, have simulated alternative climate outcomes driven by those emission - and derived concentration - scenarios, which add and in some cases update the CMIP5 simulations driven by the older Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
06 December 2023 Vienna, Austria and online
11 December 2023 zoom webinar AND the Japanese Pavilion at the COP28