Over the past year, the Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program has made significant strides in advancing our understanding of the complex relationships between ecosystems, land use, and climate.
Through interdisciplinary research and international collaboration, IIASA scientists addressed critical challenges at the nexus of biodiversity, natural resources, and sustainable development. From uncovering the shifting carbon sink dynamics of global forests, to assessing the synergies between EU climate and biodiversity policies, the program contributed to shaping evidence-based strategies for environmental resilience and efficient resource management.
Analyzing changes in carbon sinking capacity of global forests
IIASA scientists highlighted that although global forests continued to consistently absorb carbon dioxide for the past three decades, disruptions chip away at their sinking capacity.
Researchers from 11 countries analyzed long-term ground measurements combined with remote sensing data, finding that forests take up an average of 3.5 billion metric tons of carbon per year, which is nearly half of the carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels between 1990 and 2019. The results show that although the carbon sink in global forests was steady between the 1990s and the 2010s, some major biome-level changes emerged.
“Carbon sinks have increased in temperate and tropical regrowth forests owing to increases in forest area. Past tree planting in China was a major contributor to this increase,” explains IIASA Distinguished Emeritus Research Scholar Anatoly Shvidenko, one of study coauthors. “On the other hand, carbon sinks decreased in boreal and tropical forests as a result of intensified disturbances and losses in intact forest area.”
The study highlights that in tropical forests, the foremost threats are deforestation, degradation, and droughts, which are the primary causes of the declining carbon sink. As for boreal forests, climate changes have provoked a significant increase in the extent, frequency, and severity of disturbances, basically wildfires and harmful insect outbreaks.
The study corroborates the need to develop landscape-based land-use policies in all forest biomes that can limit deforestation, promote forest restoration, and improve logging and relative activities.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19895
Leading the first integrated assessment of EU climate and biodiversity policies
In 2020, the European Commission’s Directorate General for the Environment highlighted the need to explore potential synergies between the climate change and biodiversity agendas. The BIOCLIMA consortium, co-led by IIASA, spearheaded this effort, conducting a robust assessment of existing policies and policy proposals.
In partnership with UNEP-WCMC and EuroCARE, IIASA scientists simulated the individual and combined effects of different policies on biodiversity indicators (e.g., species conservation status and ecosystems extent and condition), as well as on land-use change, greenhouse gas emissions, carbon stocks and flows. In addition, they specifically analyzed potential synergies and trade-offs between current biodiversity and climate policies.
“The results of our study highlight positive long-term climate mitigation benefits from increased protection and restoration efforts,” says IIASA Biodiversity, Ecology, and Conservation Research Group Leader Piero Visconti. “We showed that biodiversity policies, especially the Nature Restoration Regulation, is not only essential to provide benefits for species and habitats of conservation concern, but can also deliver substantial contributions to climate mitigation without affecting the EU’s ability to supply domestic and international markets with primary products from the agriculture and forestry sectors.’’
The results were published by the European Commission and are expected to inform national policies and strategic decisions at sub-national to continental levels in terms of conservation actions and land-use policies, including the legally binding restoration targets for EU Member States.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/20022
Innovative solutions for sustainability in the Zambezi River Basin
IIASA researchers addressed nexus challenges in the Zambezi River Basin by integrating policy-relevant stakeholder scenarios with advanced modeling tools.
The Zambezi River Basin, the fourth largest in Africa, spans 1.4 million km² across eight countries and sustains the livelihoods of over 40 million people. The region, which is heavily reliant on agriculture, faces poverty, food insecurity, and climate change challenges. Current basin development plans often lack cross-sectoral coordination, leading to unintended environmental and socioeconomic impacts.
“Our analysis shows that sustainable development in the long run delivers not only significant economic benefits but social and environmental benefits. It requires continued cooperation and nexus approaches across all basin countries to achieve their sustainable development goals for food, energy, and water security,” explains study lead author Amanda Palazzo, a researcher in the Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program.
The research highlights key solutions, including investments to improve irrigation efficiency, transform smallholder agriculture, expand sustainable groundwater use, and prioritize surface water allocation. These strategies aim to balance economic growth and environmental sustainability amid climate and socioeconomic changes.
The modeling framework was developed under the Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (ISWEL) project, supported by the Zambezi Watercourse Commission (ZAMCOM). As the basin’s coordinating body, ZAMCOM facilitates cooperation among the eight riparian states to align national investments with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.
By leveraging integrated modeling tools with local knowledge, policymakers can identify strategies for managing water and land resources, thus ensuring a holistic approach to achieving food, energy, and water security.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19864
Impacts of rapid urbanization on African food systems and biodiversity
Urban expansion in Africa is outpacing population growth, leading to food production losses, biodiversity decline, and rising land-use emissions. An international team of researchers examined both the direct and indirect effects of this trend – including land-use displacement and dietary shifts.
To do so, they integrated spatially explicit projections of African urban expansion with observed shifts in rice consumption to inform the GLOBIOM model.
“As Africa is rapidly urbanizing, its food system is also transforming. This puts a lot of pressure on food security in what is already the most food-insecure region in the world,” notes Koen De Vos, study author and a guest research assistant in Integrated Biosphere Futures group of the Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program.
The results reveal that, contrary to previous studies, urban expansion has a limited direct impact on reducing food production. This is because agricultural land tends to expand elsewhere, offsetting initial losses. However, the impact on natural lands is more pronounced, as it includes both the direct effects of urban sprawl and the indirect displacement of agricultural land.
The study found that the biggest environmental spillover stems from dietary changes associated with urbanization. For instance, urban populations eat more rice, boosting production and causing more methane emissions, water use, and biodiversity loss. These findings underscore the importance of holistic policies that account not only for direct land-use change, but also for the indirect effects of shifting diets in rapidly urbanizing regions.
Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/19760