Tatiana Ermolieva
Research Scholar
Cooperation and Transformative Governance Research Group
Advancing Systems Analysis Program
Research Scholar
Integrated Biosphere Futures Research Group
Biodiversity and Natural Resources Program
Biography
Dr. Tatiana Ermolieva is a Research Scholar with IIASA’s Ecosystems Services & Management Program (ESM). She holds the Kjell Gunnarson's Risk Management Prize (Swedish Insurance Society) and an IIASA Peccei Award for her work on optimal decisions for coping with dependent catastrophic risks.Dr. Ermolieva has a master's degree in applied mathematics with specialization in statistics, optimization, and economics from Kiev State University, Ukraine, and a PhD on spatio-temporal estimation and optimization of heterogeneous values and flows in complex dynamic and stochastic systems. Her main research interests are analysis and modeling of complex socioeconomic, agricultural, environmental, and financial systems with explicit treatment of uncertainties, risks, extreme events, and spatial and temporal heterogeneities of regions and agents. She develops quantitative models and methods, including software and practical applications, for designing strategies ensuring robust system performance in the presence of uncertainties and risks, in particular of extreme catastrophic nature.
Dr. Ermolieva's activities with ESM concern GIS-based modeling and optimization of regional developments, methodologies for robust downscaling of land use (including agricultural) valuesfrom incomplete, uncertain, aggregate information; non-parametric approaches to data estimation and recovering. Recent practical studies cover topics of global food security and adaptation under climatic uncertainties and risks; fusion of downscaling within the framework of ESM's GLOBIOM model; treatment of systemic risks with a stochastic version of GLOBIOM; design of robust insurance programs (including cat bonds, contingent credits, mutual funds) against climatic disasters, e.g., floods; analysis of robust economic instruments (emission trading markets) under uncertainties; and discounting under catastrophic risks. She applies her skills in several EU projects, in collaborative research with colleagues from various IIASA programs, joint research with IIASA NMOs and other institutions.
Last update: 26 APR 2016
Publications
Ermoliev, Y., Ermolieva, T., Jonas, M. , Obersteiner, M. , Wagner, F. , & Winiwarter, W. (2015). Integrated model for robust emission trading under uncertainties: cost-effectiveness and environmental safety. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98 234-244. 10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.003.
Xiangyang, X., Gao, J., Cao, G.-Y., Ermoliev, Y., Ermolieva, T., Kryazhimskii, A.V., & Rovenskaya, E. (2015). Systems analysis of coal production and energy-water-food security in China. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis 51 (3) 370-377. 10.1007/s10559-015-9729-6.
Ermolieva, T., Ermoliev, Y., Jonas, M. , Obersteiner, M. , Wagner, F. , & Winiwarter, W. (2015). Uncertainty, cost-effectiveness and environmental safety of robust carbon trading: integrated approach. In: Uncertainties in Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Expanding Our Perspectives. Eds. Ometto, J.P., Bun, R., Jonas, M. , & Nahorski, Z., pp. 183-196 Cham, Switzerland: Springer International. ISBN 98-3-319-15900-3 10.1007/978-3-319-15901-0_13.
Ermolieva, T.Y., Ermoliev, Y.M., Havlik, P. , Mosnier, A., Leclère, D., Kraxner, F., Khabarov, N. , & Obersteiner, M. (2015). Systems analysis of robust strategic decisions to plan secure food, energy, and water provision based on the stochastic GLOBIOM model. Cybernetics and Systems Analysis 51 (1) 125-133. 10.1007/s10559-015-9704-2.
Zhang, X., Ermolieva, T., Balkovič, J. , Mosnier, A., Kraxner, F., & Liu, J. (2015). Recursive cross-entropy downscaling model for spatially explicit future land uses: A case study of the Heihe River Basin. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 89-90 56-64. 10.1016/j.pce.2015.05.007.