In an increasingly globalized world, countries are becoming more deeply interconnected through complex supply and value chains, transnational transport corridors, knowledge exchange, investment flows, and migration. As a small, landlocked, and open developing economy, the Kyrgyz Republic is especially sensitive to global and regional geopolitical and geoeconomic dynamics. Understanding and navigating these dynamics is essential for shaping a resilient and sustainable industrial development path.

Objectives

This project represents a collaborative effort between the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), the Research and Industrial Policy Advice (RPA) Division of the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), and the State Committee for Industry, Energy and Subsoil Use of the Kyrgyz Republic. It aimed to support sustainable industrial development through strategic foresight and scenario-based planning.

IIASA research

The priorities for industrial development in Kyrgyzstan were identified and substantiated through research conducted at IIASA. The approach combined multiple methods and data sources, including:

  • A comprehensive review of national strategic documents
  • Analysis of data from both national and international databases
  • In-depth interviews with key stakeholders across government, business, and civil society
  • Broad stakeholder engagement, including the establishment of a core stakeholder group and four regional round-table discussions held in Bishkek, Osh, Karakol, and Jalal-Abad in May and July 2018

To explore long-term development trajectories, the research team applied advanced foresight techniques and participatory scenario planning methods. The resulting scenarios illustrated alternative pathways for Kyrgyzstan’s industrial and economic development, helping to highlight critical uncertainties and guide policymakers in defining strategic directions for the country’s future.

Outcomes

 

The project analyzed the state of Kyrgyzstan’s industrial sector and assessed the country’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and risks. Based on this analysis, it developed strategic recommendations to:

  • Improve the quality of governance
  • Facilitate access to financing and stimulate investment
  • Strengthen regional and global economic integration and expand export opportunities
  • Align regional development with industrial policy priorities
  • Support social development goals and promote environmental sustainability
  • Build the infrastructure necessary for industrial development
  • Foster the growth of key strategic sectors such as electricity, light industry, machinery, construction, information technologies (IT), and others

The results of the project formed the foundation for the Strategy for the Sustainable Development of the Industry of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2019–2023 and its accompanying Action Plan, officially adopted by Government Decree No. 502 on 27 September 2019.

In addition, the extended findings were disseminated through a joint UNIDO–IIASA report, two peer-reviewed publications and a series of IIASA working papers, ensuring broader accessibility and impact within the policy and research communities.

Project publications

Komendantova, N. , Rovenskaya, E. , Strelkovskii, N. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2022). Impacts of Various Connectivity Processes in Central Asia on Sustainable Development of Kyrgyzstan. Sustainability 14 (12) e6998. 10.3390/su14126998.

Strelkovskii, N. , Komendantova, N. , Sizov, S. , & Rovenskaya, E. (2020). Building plausible futures: Scenario-based strategic planning of industrial development of Kyrgyzstan. Futures 124 e102646. 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102646.

Komendantova, N. , Rovenskaya, E. , Strelkovskii, N. , Karabashov, N., Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Sizov, S. , Zheenaliev, Z., Ekenberg, L. , Sedighi, E. , Stepanova, A., Santiago, F., & Clara, M. (2018). Connecting Regional Development, Regional Integration and Value Added Creation: Strategic Elements for Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) , Laxenburg, Austria.

Komendantova, N. , Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Karabashov, N., Zheenaliev, Z., Rovenskaya, E. , Strelkovskii, N. , Sizov, S. , Sedighi, E. , Stepanova, A., Ekenberg, L. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Regional Aspects. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-015

Komendantova, N. , Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Karabashov, N., Zheenaliev, Z., Rovenskaya, E. , Strelkovskii, N. , Sizov, S. , Sedighi, E. , Stepanova, A., Ekenberg, L. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Required Infrastructure and Priority Industrial Sectors. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-014

Komendantova, N. , Sizov, S. , Chekirbaev, U., Rovenskaya, E. , Strelkovskii, N. , Karabashov, N., Atakanov, N., Zheenaliev, Z., Sedighi, E. , Stepanova, A., Ekenberg, L. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Investment and Financing. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-013

Rovenskaya, E. , Stepanova, A., Komendantova, N , Strelkovskii, N. , Sizov, S. , Karabashov, N., Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Zheenaliev, Z., Sedighi, E. , Ekenberg, L. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Trade Opportunities, Export Potential and the Role of Economic Integration Processes. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-012

Rovenskaya, E. , Sedighi, E. , Komendantova, N. , Strelkovskii, N. , Karabashov, N., Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Zheenaliev, Z., Stepanova, A., Ekenberg, L. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Background. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-011

Komendantova, N. , Rovenskaya, E. , Ekenberg, L. , Strelkovskii, N. , Sizov, S. , Sedighi, E. , Stepanova, A., Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Karabashov, N., Zheenaliev, Z., & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Recommendations and Responsible Bodies. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-010

Strelkovskii, N. , Komendantova, N. , Rovenskaya, E. , Sizov, S. , Sedighi, E. , Stepanova, A., Atakanov, N., Chekirbaev, U., Karabashov, N., Zheenaliev, Z., Ekenberg, L. , & Rodriguez, F.S. (2018). Industrial Development of Kyrgyzstan: Plausible Futures. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-009