The fast economic growth in Vietnam’s urban areas and the the lack of control of polluting sources are causing public health problems and significant environmental degradation, including greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, undermining the potential for sustainable socioeconomic development of the country and impacting the poor.

Any cost-effective set of policy interventions to improve air quality in a city like Hanoi needs to address emissions from a wide range of sources in many different economic sectors, not only within the city domain, but also in the surrounding provinces. This poses new challenges to environmental management and governance systems, where often necessary communication and coordination channels across-economic sectors and regional administrations are less developed. In addition, the design of effective policy interventions must be informed by scientific information covering a wide range of scientific disciplines, including technology research, economics, atmospheric science, and epidemiology, and by systems thinking that distills relevant information from different disciplines. Traditionally, such integration is less developed in the scientific world, hampering an effective interactions between science and decision makers.

As a new form of collaborative research between IIASA and its National Member Organizations, a collaborative project between IIASA’s PM Group and BNR programs (formerly AIR and ESM programs) and the Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST) aims to develop the scientific infrastructure for a long-lasting science-policy interface for air quality management in Vietnam. In particular, the project will:

  • develop a multi-disciplinary research community in Vietnam on integrated air quality management, and 
  • provide local decision makers with the capacity to develop cost-effective management plans for the Hanoi metropolitan area and surrounding regions and, in the longer-term, the whole of Vietnam.

Key activities

  • Implementation of the GAINS model tool for five regions in Northern Vietnam, i.e. Hanoi, Bac Ninh
  • Compilation of corresponding databases on economic activities, emissions, emission control options, and demography, as well as emission source apportionments for these five regions 
  • Development of a citizen-science GEO-WIKI tool to facilitate a bottom-up assessment of emissions from craft villages, which are poorly documented (in cooperation with IIASA's ESM program)
  • Illustrative cost-effectiveness analyses of policy intervention options
  • Training of technical personal of the responsible administrations

Progress

  • The kick-off meeting for the project took place in Hanoi from 18-21 December 2017.
  • A report on the first phase of the project was presented at a workshop held in Hanoi on 26 October 2018, which also marked the formal launch of the GAINS-Vietnam model (more information below).

Project partners

Hanoi participants © VAST

2018 Workshop

During the first year of the project, IIASA’s GAINS model was adapted to the Greater Ha Noi/Red River Delta area and surrounding regions, and an initial set of data has been compiled from publicly available statistics and studies. The report on this phase of the project was presented at a workshop held in Hanoi on 26 October 2018, which also marked the formal launch of the GAINS-Vietnam model. This event was covered on the Vietnamese television news.

Download report in English

Download report in Vietnamese

Research Findings

Although further work will be necessary to refine the GAINS-Vietnam tool, the initial findings are highly relevant for air quality management in Vietnam.

The measured annual mean concentrations of PM2.5 are clearly above the national ambient air quality standards, and exceed the global guideline value of the World Health Organization by a wide margin. Based on local emission inventories and meteorological information, the analysis reveals that road traffic is the major but, in contrast to widespread belief, not the dominating source of PM2.5 pollution in the Ha Noi province. Road transport is responsible for about one quarter of the ambient PM2.5, the other 75% originating from other sectors, notably large power and industrial plants, the residential sector and the open burning of agricultural waste. Livestock farming and fertilizer application make important contributions to the chemical formation of secondary particles.

Despite the currently adopted policy measures, Ha Noi’s air quality could deteriorate in the future as a consequence of the anticipated further increase in economic activity. Without additional policy measures PM2.5 concentrations in northern Vietnam could be 25-30% higher in 2030 than in 2015. This implies that almost 85% of the population in northern Vietnam would be exposed to air quality that does not conform to the national ambient air quality standard.

Effective improvements of Ha Noi’s air quality require coordination with neighboring provinces. About one third of PM2.5 exposure in Ha Noi originates from emission sources within the same province, while the majority is imported from outside. If restricted to the Ha Noi province, even the most stringent emission control measures will be insufficient to reduce effectively ambient pollution levels in the city.

Policy interventions are available that could significantly improve air quality in northern Vietnam. Cost-effective strategies need to combine technical emission controls, such as effective cleaning of flue gas, with policies that promote structural changes, e.g., energy efficiency improvements and a transition to cleaner fuels. The GAINS-Vietnam tool, once fully implemented with local data and validated against observations, can help in identifying effective portfolios of measures, taking into account the costs, benefits and political economy of the policy interventions.

Online model manual in Vietnamese 

Access to the online model