Policy action key to unlocking cost-effective methane reductions

Offering the clearest picture to date of methane abatement efforts since 2021, the report shows that although global methane emissions are still rising, recent policy developments such as recent waste regulations in Europe and North America and slower growth in some natural gas markets, have improved the outlook and lowered projected emissions to 2030. It also finds that political commitment to methane action has grown significantly: as of June 2025, 65% of Paris Agreement Parties include methane-targeting measures in their latest Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a 38% increase compared with pre-2020 commitments.

The quantitative analysis underpinning the report’s findings was conducted using the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, managed by the Pollution Management Research Group in the Energy, Climate, and Environment Program.

“The detailed bottom-up sector and technology resolution of the GAINS model is an effective tool for communicating emission reduction possibilities and costs to policy makers and other stakeholders in an easily accessible manner,” says Lena Höglund-Isaksson, the lead scientist behind IIASA’s contribution.

Launched at COP26 in Glasgow by the European Union and the United States, the Global Methane Pledge now includes 160 participating parties aiming to jointly cut global anthropogenic (caused by human activity) methane emissions by at least 30% between 2020 and 2030 – an ambition aligned with keeping global warming well below 2°C. With 2025 marking the halfway point, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) and the Climate and Clean Air Coalition (CCAC) commissioned a detailed assessment of progress toward this goal.

IIASA scientists analyzed the current global policy landscape for methane abatement and scanned for planned measures explicitly or implicitly targeting methane emissions as mentioned by countries in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to the UNFCCC and the Methane mitigation roadmaps and Action Plans (MAPs) submitted to the CCAC. Converted into quantifiable reductions within the GAINS model, these planned measures could reduce global anthropogenic methane emissions by up to 8% between 2020 and 2030, representing what would be the largest and most sustained decline in methane emissions since the industrial revolution. However, this remains far short of the 30% reduction required to meet the GMP target.

Further results from the GAINS model show that full implementation of existing, proven methane mitigation technologies could reduce emissions by just over 30% by 2030, indicating that the Pledge target is technically achievable but will require significant increases in national ambition. Achieving these reductions in methane emissions would deliver a climate benefit of 0.2°C avoided warming by 2030 and 0.3°C by 2050, and in addition, substantial health benefits from reduced ozone formation in the troposphere, preventing more than 180,000 premature deaths, as well as nearly 19 Mt of annual crop losses by 2030. The economic value of these benefits alone is estimated to exceed US$ 330 billion per year.

Cost analyses show that more than 80% of the 2030 mitigation potential can be achieved at relatively low cost (below US$ 1,000 per ton of methane, or US$ 36 per ton of CO_₂ e). The global cost of achieving maximum technically feasible reductions is estimated at US$ 127 billion annually – far outweighed by the benefits.

Across sectors, the energy sector continues to offer the largest opportunity for rapid and cost-effective reductions, accounting for 72% of the mitigation potential from current legislation levels in 2030. Agriculture contributes 18% of technically feasible reductions, and the waste sector 10%. Although investment in better waste management, including improved landfills and circular waste treatment, will yield major methane reductions after 2040, its short-term impact is constrained by ongoing decay of organic waste already stored in landfills.

Major economies play a decisive role: maximum technically feasible measures could reduce methane emissions from the G20+ group by 36% between 2020 and 2030. Success will also require scaling up recent policy progress across all major emitting sectors, closing the methane finance gap, and strengthening transparent and reliable methane measurement systems to enable accurate tracking of progress by governments and industry.

Looking ahead to 2050, the analysis shows that combining deep decarbonization of the global energy system with demand-side shifts such as healthier, more plant-based diets, could halve global anthropogenic methane emissions if supported by full implementation of near-term technical mitigation opportunities.

“Getting quantitative estimates of emission reduction potentials and costs from a model framework like GAINS that applies consistent assumptions across countries, sectors, and technologies is highly valuable insight for policymakers and diplomats looking for conciliatory pathways forward on international methane mitigation action. The ambition of the Global Methane Status Report is to provide such insights,” Höglund-Isaksson concludes.

Read the full report