COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, came to an end after a bitter fight. Wealthy nations pledged to triple support to reach 300 billion Dollars per year by 2035. Developing countries said they needed 1.3 trillion Dollars. IIASA researchers also estimate the needs to reach trillions, not billions. Hence, a disappointing outcome, overshadowed by geopolitical tensions, according to IIASA’s experts.
© Keywan Riahi | M. Silveri IIASA
"Overall very disappointing: The finance commitment of 300 billion in support of the developing world is barely more than a drop in the ocean. COP29 demonstrated the current challenges of a fragmented and polarized world that seems unable to take joint action.
This year's outcome of COP29 is deeply disappointing and problematic. The finance commitment of 300 billion in support of the developing world is barely more than a drop in the ocean. This will neither be sufficient to provide the seed funding for increased mitigation ambition nor will it be sufficient to help developing countries to avoid humanitarian and economic hardship from the expected increase impacts.
COP29 demonstrated the current challenges of a fragmented and polarized world that seems unable to take joint action - even though that these actions would protect a global common good with benefits for *all*. The challenges were further amplified by devastating performance of the organizing country Azerbaijan, which was unable to provide the necessary leadership to find agreement - and instead actively impeded a more ambitious and positive outcome.
Brazil's positive role in COP29 needs to be emphasized. They are going to host the next negotiations in 2025 where the global community will need to discuss the mechanisms of how to ratchet up action and HOW the mobilize the finance. So far even the 300 billion is only a target that the countries agreed on, but it comes without any concrete plan for how to make it happen.
The negotiations failed also to agreed on a mitigation work program that would acknowledge and continue the outcomes of the global stocktake at COP28. In that sense also the oil exporting country UAE did a much better job than Azerbaijani host in the last two weeks."
© Carl Schleussner
"Geopolitical tensions have been looming large over this COP, emboldening those with an interest in undermining global progress to tackle the climate crisis, while vulnerable nations have been sidelined. Regrettably, the host country's management of the COP has failed to foster the essential trust among various groups. But in the end countries got together to send a much needed signal that multilateralism can still deliver results in difficult times. Yet, COP29 outcomes remain inadequate in light of an ever accelerating climate crisis. The job for the Brazilian presidency next year has not become easier.
The new finance goal is not much more than a minimal compromise and what has been put on the table from developed countries is disappointing. Much more work lies ahead to establish how to get to at least 1,3 trillion of climate finance in 2035. And it’s not sufficient to set a goal many years down the road, but what’s neeed is to agree on a path on how to get there. The Baku to Belém Roadmap needs to shed light on this.
On mitigation, it is very unfortunate that it was not possible to agree on anything substantive in Baku. It is now up to the countries to demonstrate climate leadership by submitting new ambitious climate pledges going into next year. There are some promising signs from countries like the UK, UEA and Brazil, but others need to follow suit and we need to see much more ambition globally to close the emissions gap for COP30 in Brazil. In the race to net zero we’re jogging at best where we need to be sprinting."
© Bas van Ruijven | M. Silveri, IIASA
"This a really disappointing outcome. The climate finance on the table is problematically low compared to the needs that we estimated at IIASA. We need to find new and constructive ways to bring equity and justice into the target setting and financing without jeopardizing to limit warming to well below 2 degrees.
This COP also showed that countries and national governments are not the front runners to implement this transition. While countries wrestle with each other, the cities, businesses, and commercial and central banks are moving forward with implementation of a low carbon future."
© IIASA
"The final outcome of COP 29 on the international climate goal is insufficient: too little, too unclear, and too late - concrete pledges by the Global North came only on the last day of the climate summit, this after three years of discussions on this key UNFCCC agenda item.
As a matter of justice and urgency in terms of attending to the needs of the Global South and keeping the fragile Architecture of the Paris Agreement intact, clarity needs to be worked on a number of issues by the Roadmap to Belem:
- quantity of finance to be supplied by developed countries starting 2026 leading up to 2035
- modalities: a strong focus on grants is desired by developing countries, while in the current arrangements 60% of the $100 billion came in loans, of which 10% at market-based interest rated
- role of Loss and Damage: despite strong demands to integrate Loss and Damage in the pledges, this needs to happen still. Research shows that needs are of a magnitude of 100 of billions, while current Loss and Damage funds is not part of the NCQG and holds ~$700 Million
- integrated vision: some negotiators still consider adaptation and Loss and Damage as charity that creates largely local benefits. Further evidence and communication ought to be generated that resilience is essential locally and globally in order to usher in necessary transformations."