IIASA Director General Hans Joachim (John) Schellnhuber spoke to Falter's Katharina Kropshofer about why tipping elements in the Earth system are so difficult to predict.
If the Atlantic overturning circulation (which includes the Gulf Stream) tips, colder temperatures could prevail in Europe. But when and whether that will actually happen is very difficult to calculate. Maybe it will take another year. Or maybe it will take 6,000 years. Then there could be an end to ocean currents that transport nutrients over thousands of kilometers and bring warm water to Europe. If the Atlantic overturning circulation, or AMOC for short, suddenly no longer existed, it could get five to ten degrees colder in Europe and extreme weather events could increase. But when will that happen?
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