A database with scenarios from the integrated assessment community to expedite climate change assessments

In May 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ask the international scientific community to develop a new set of climate scenarios for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), expected to be published in 2013/2014.
The new scenarios are called the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).
Four RCPs based on different radiative forcing levels were chosen from the literature. One of these was developed at IIASA using the MESSAGE model.
The RCP database, which documents the emissions, concentrations, and land-cover change projections based on these four RCPs, is intended to provide input to climate models.
They will also facilitate and expedite future climate change assessments across the integrated assessment community.
FAST FACTS
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The RCP database, hosted at IIASA, represents several years of collaboration between internationally renowned scientific teams coordinated by the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC).
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In its first three months online, the RCP database was viewed by over 16,000 people.
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The different scenarios (RCPs) underpinning the climate simulations of the AR5 can be viewed and compared online at the level of five world regions, 13 sectors, and with 0.5º × 0.5º resolution spatial maps.
About the RCP database
The RCPs, which replace and extend the scenarios used in earlier IPCC assessments, are compatible with the full range of stabilization, mitigation, and baseline emission scenarios available in the current scientific literature. The RCP levels chosen, a brief description, a reference to the underlying publication, and the modeling tool used are shown in Table 1 below.
How the RCP database works
The database, which was first released in May 2009, includes harmonized and consolidated data for the four RCPs, comprising emissions pathways starting from an identical base year (2000) to 2100. The database covers emissions of well-mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases at the level of five world regions and short-lived GHGs as well as radiatively and chemically active gases (black and organic carbon, methane, sulfur, nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds, carbon monoxide and ammonia) in addition to spatial patterns.
Radiative forcing and concentrations of GHGs are given for the RCPs up to the year 2100, and are extended for climate modeling experiments to 2300. Wherever available, historical information is provided back to the year 1850. The data, verified for quality and consistency, can be downloaded in various formats, including Microsoft Excel, scalable vector graphics, and netCDF format, free of charge at the IIASA Web site, subject to provision of an e-mail address. The RCP database was developed by the Energy Program and Transitions to New Technologies Program at IIASA.
Background
"Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-Atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of this factor as a potential climate change mechanism," according to the IPCC. It is expressed in watts per square meter (W/m2).
Variations in the sun's output, polar ice, and natural events like volcanic eruptions influence the Earth’s radiative balance, as do human activities that result in, for example, greenhouse gas emissions, pollution, and deforestation. Changes in the resulting radiative forcing level are measured at the top of the atmosphere and calculated by subtracting the energy radiating out from Earth from the energy flowing in and comparing the result against the IPCC base year of 1750 before the onset of the industrialization, where radiative forcing is assumed to be zero. If the level of radiative forcing varies from zero, then some warming or cooling is occurring. Scientists can directly measure the amount by which the Earth’s energy budget is out of balance and calculate the effects that this could have for a range of human and environmental indicators. The four different RCPs were developed to represent the world at different forcing levels in the future. Radiative forcing leading to 8.5 W/m2 in 2100, as studied by IIASA using the MESSAGE model, is the high end of the radiative forcing range being used.
Model Metadata
Jae Edmonds (15)
Kathy Hibbard (6)
Yasuaki Hijioka (11)
Sawako Ishiwatari (11)
Mikiko Kainuma (11)
Etsushi Kato (26)
Tom Kram (16)
Martin Manning (4)
Toshihiko Masui (11)
Ken'ichi Matsumoto (11)
Jerry Meehl (6)
Richard Moss (15)
Nebojsa Nakicenovic (14)
Toru Nozawa (11)
Keywan Riahi (14)
Steve Rose (1)
Steven J Smith (15)
Ron Stouffer (3)
Allison Thomson (15)
Detlef vanVuuren (16)
and John Weyant (2)
Historical Emissions Development
Tami Bond (8)
Janusz Cofala (14)
Veronika Eyring (9)
Claire Granier (7,8)
Angelika Heil (10)
Mikiko Kainuma (11)
Zbigniew Klimont (14)
Jean-Francois Lamarque (5,6)
David Lee (12)
Catherine Liousse (13)
Aude Mieville (7)
Keywan Riahi (14)
Martin Schultz (10)
Steven J Smith (15)
David Stevenson (17)
and John Van Aardenne (18)
Land-Use Scenarios History and Harmonization
Richard Betts(21)
Louise P. Chini (27)
Johannes Feddema (22)
Steve Frolking (19)
Kees Klein Goldewijk (16)
George C. Hurtt (27)
Chris Jones (21)
Tsuguki Kinoshita (11)
Keywan Riahi (14)
Elena Shevliakova (20)
Steven J Smith (15)
Elke Stehfest (16)
Allison Thomson (15)
Peter Thornton (23)
Detlef van Vuuren (16)
and Yingping Wang (24)
2) Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
3) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
4) NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NZ
5) NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Colorado, USA
6) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
7) Laboratoire Atmospheres, Milieux, Observation Spatiales, CNRS UMR 8190, Paris, France; Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
8) University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA
9) Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhoffen, Germany
10) Forschungszentrum, Juelich, Germany
11) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
12) Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
13) Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Toulouse, France
14) International Institue for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg Austria
15) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA
16) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands
17) University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
18) Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy
19) Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824
20) Princeton/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
21) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
22) University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS
23) Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN
24) CSIRO, Australia
25) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
26) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
27) University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA
see: https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=welcome#citation
2) Department of Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University, Stanford, CA
3) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
4) NZ Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, NZ
5) NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO, USA; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado at Boulder, Colorado, USA
6) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA
7) Laboratoire Atmospheres, Milieux, Observation Spatiales, CNRS UMR 8190, Paris, France; Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris, France
8) University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, IL, USA
9) Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhoffen, Germany
10) Forschungszentrum, Juelich, Germany
11) National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
12) Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK
13) Laboratoire d'Aerologie, Toulouse, France
14) International Institue for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg Austria
15) Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, College Park, MD, USA
16) Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bilthoven, Netherlands
17) University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
18) Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy
19) Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space, University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH 03824
20) Princeton/GFDL, Princeton, NJ
21) Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK
22) University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS
23) Oak Ridge National Lab, Oak Ridge, TN
24) CSIRO, Australia
25) Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Germany
26) Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Japan
27) University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA