Through its research, the MDM Group aims to advance demographic modeling methods to assess and forecast population dynamics with a focus on demographic and spatial heterogeneity under different socioeconomic scenarios at the global, national, and sub-national level.
The MDM Group’s research focus is at the core of the IIASA strategic plan in rigorously incorporating the human-centered system model into systems analysis by considering the feedback mechanisms between human and other social, economic, and natural systems. The group has a strong focus on population forecasting using a scenario-based approach allowing for aligning future demographic components with socioeconomic scenarios such as the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) originally developed for the climate change research community. Apart from updating global projections of population, human capital, and other relevant dimensions using scenarios, the group also carries out innovative, policy-relevant research at the local and regional level, for instance, assessing social vulnerability to COVID-19 at a small spatial scale.
Models, tools, datasets
Projects
Staff
News
07 March 2024
Populations of the future: updated tool helps to visualize projections
27 February 2024
Slovak delegation from the Institute of Economic Research visits IIASA
22 February 2024
Master's Programme "Global Demography"
Events
Focus
09 November 2023
Consistent vs. increasing levels of population decline in Spanish municipalities
28 November 2022
Standardizing migration data in Europe
Publications
González-Leonardo, M., Rowe, F., Potančoková, M. , & Goujon, A. (2024). Assessing the Differentiated Impacts of COVID-19 on the Immigration Flows to Europe. International Migration Review e01979183241242445. 10.1177/01979183241242445. Marois, G. , Gietel-Basten, S., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Zellmann, J.G., Reiter, C. , & Lutz, W. (2024). Measuring Human Capital with Productivity-Weighted Labor Force: Methodology and Projections for China, India, the United States, and the European Union. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-005 Bijak, J., Czaika, M., Potančoková, M. , & de Vilhena, D.V. (2024). New perspectives for migration foresight and preparedness: Insights from the QuantMig Project. Migration Policy Practice XIII (1) 34-40. K.C., S., Dhakad, M., Potančoková, M. , Adhikari, S., Yildiz, D. , Mamolo, M., Sobotka, T., Zeman, K., Abel, G. , Lutz, W. , & Goujon, A. (2024). Updating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) Global Population and Human Capital Projections. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-003 Yildiz, D. & Abel, G. (2024). Migration flows by age, sex and educational attainment. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-24-001