Technology-scaling methodology and modeling

In collaboration with the Energy (ENE) Program and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact research (PIK), Germany, the Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Program applied its new technology scaling methodology to climate policy scenarios.

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The collaboration with ENE and PIK, utilized the TNT methodology as a framework for evaluating the plausibility and likelihood of stringent climate policy scenarios in terms of their implied up-scaling dynamics for climate friendly technologies. 

Keywan Riahi, Director of the Energy (ENE) Program coordinated this research which involved Arnulf Grubler and Charlie Wilson (TNT) and Volker Krey (ENE). The results were published in the journal Climatic Change [1]. 

Collaboration with ENE and researchers from RITE, Japan, also continued on improving Integrated Assessment Models in terms of their representation of technology diffusion, and mechanisms of technology improvement including scaling and learning-by-doing. Further model development also aimed at including knowledge and technology spillover effects in a simplified Integrated Assessment model. This research was performed by ENE YSSP Benjamin Leibowicz, who was co-supervised by Volker Krey and Arnulf Grubler.


[1] Wilson C, Grubler A, Bauer, N, Krey V, Riahi, K. (2013). Future capacity growth of energy technologies: Are scenarios consistent with historical evidence? Climate Change 118(2), 381-95.

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Last edited: 22 May 2014


Arnulf Grubler

Emeritus Research Scholar

Transitions To New Technologies

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