13 October 2021

Voting for Tomorrow: Climate Change, Environmental Concern, and Green Voting

IIASA demographer Raya Muttarak is invited by Max Planck Institute of Demographic Research to discuss the impact of exposure to climate extremes, environmental concern and green voting for a large panel of European countries

Photo 74925151 / Green © Rawpixelimages | Dreamstime.com

Photo 74925151 / Green © Rawpixelimages | Dreamstime.com

Raya Muttarak from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital presents some results from the recent working paper ”Voting for Tomorrow: Climate Change, Environmental Concern, and Green Voting”.

In the past decade, the world has witnessed increased climate change impacts with many countries experiencing more frequent and more severe climate extremes. With public support being fundamental in scaling up climate action, here, we analyze the impact of exposure to climate extremes on environmental concern and Green voting for a large panel of European countries. Combining high-resolution climatological data with regionally aggregated and harmonized information on environmental concern (42 Eurobarometer surveys, 2002-2019, 34 countries) and European Parliamentary electoral outcomes (7 elections, 1990-2019, 28 countries) at the subnational level, we find a significant and sizeable effect of temperature anomalies, heat episodes and dry spells in the previous 12 months on green concern and voting. The effects differ significantly by region and are most pronounced in regions with a cooler Continental or temperate Atlantic climate, and weaker in regions with a warmer Mediterranean climate. The relationship is moderated by regional GDP suggesting that climate change experience increase public support for climate action only under favorable economic conditions. By empirically documenting the important role of contextual influences and regional differences on green concern and voting, our findings have important implications for the current efforts to promote and implement climate actions in line with the Paris Agreement.

Wednesday 13 October, 2021

Time: from 11 a.m. to 12 p.m. (GMT +2)

For program details and registration visit the organizer's website

Dr. Muttarak's research focuses mainly on the intersection of social inequality, differential vulnerability and environmental change. She has published widely in the field of population dynamics, environment and sustainable development including publications in high impact journals such as Science, Nature Climate Change, Nature Sustainability, The Lancet and Global Environmental Change.

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Last edited: 30 September 2021


Raya Muttarak

Program Director and Principal Research Scholar Population and Just Societies Program

Acting Research Group Leader and Principal Research Scholar Migration and Sustainable Development Research Group - Population and Just Societies Program

T +43(0) 2236 807 329


Muttarak, R. (2021). Demographic perspectives in research on global environmental change. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-21-001

Hoffmann, R., Muttarak, R. , Peisker, J., & Stanig, P. (2021). Voting for Tomorrow: Climate Change, Environmental Concern and Green Voting. 146. Dondena Working Papers Carlo F. Dondena Centre for Research on Social Dynamics and Public Policy

Dimitrova, A. & Muttarak, R. (2020). After the floods: Differential impacts of rainfall anomalies on child stunting in India. Global Environmental Change 64, e102130. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102130.

Hoffmann, R. & Muttarak, R. (2020). Greening through schooling: understanding the link between education and pro-environmental behavior in the Philippines. Environmental Research Letters 15 (1), e014009. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ea0.

Borderon, M., Sakdapolrak, P., Muttarak, R. , Kebede, E., Pagogna, R., & Sporer, E. (2019). Migration influenced by environmental change in Africa: A systematic review of empirical evidence. Demographic Research 41 (18), 491-544. 10.4054/DemRes.2019.41.18.

Hoffmann, R., Dimitrova, A., Muttarak, R. , & Crespo Cuaresma, J. (2019). Quantifying the Evidence on Climate Migration: A Meta-Analysis on Country-Level Studies. In: Population Association of American Annual Meeting, 10-13 April 2019, Austin, Texas.

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