Integrated Modeling and Decision Support
Network Analysis of Socioecological Systems
The objective was to investigate the health and quality of socio-ecological systems using networks, thermodynamics, and systems analysis approaches. Research was carried out with a network of collaborators around the world, particularly in China. In 2012 the health of the urban ecosystem of Guangzhou City, Southern China, was quantified (Figure). In particular, the northern part of the city was defined as a conservation area, its middle-south part as a maintenance area, and its southwest part as the key regulation area where certain room should be released for environment-friendly living activities and efficient production.
Spatial distribution of urban ecosystem health for Guangzhou using energy-based heath indicators.
In another study, a thermodynamic accounting framework called extended exergy analysis was used to assess the material flows of China’s economy.
Energy Efficiency and Risk Management in Public Buildings (EnRiMa)
Within this EU-funded project, a dynamic stochastic optimization model was proposed to support robust management of energy provision in public buildings. The model suggests that energy efficiency and security are achieved through strategic ex ante plans and operational ex post decisions. A prototype of a Decision Support System (DSS) kernel was elaborated. The product comprises a modeling warehouse for handling the modeling process, and Web services for integrating DSS components designed by the project partners. A novel technique built on the Structured Modeling Technology developed in the past ensures consistency of the modular components of the modeling process including data preparation, data modification, definition of user preferences, integrated model analysis, and presentation of the results. The modeling warehouse and DSS kernel will be easily adapted for the needs of IIASA programs, in particular, the WAT Program’s focus on integration of models.
Multiple-criteria model analysis
In collaboration with Warsaw University of Technology, new methods for multiple-criteria model analysis were developed, implemented as a prototype Web-based interactive tool, and adapted to the needs of the ENE Program. The methods support adaptive generation of Pareto set representations that fit diverse user preferences. In collaboration with ENE and Tsukuba University, Japan, ASA researchers started to develop methods for classification of sets of Pareto solutions resulting from multiple-criteria analysis of large models characterized by several criteria that could be positively or negatively correlated.
Analysis of discrete choice problems
In collaboration with the Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, ASA researchers made progress in the elaboration of methods and Web-enabled applications for analysis of discrete choice problems.
Integrated modeling of food, energy and water security for sustainable social, economic, and environmental development
This project is being run jointly by IIASA and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. In 2012 a pilot reduced-form version of an integrated food security management model was developed and tested. The model represents trading networks, pollution, migration, and investment as international and inter-regional links. Collective losses are accounted by quantile-based performance indicators serving to evaluate the robustness of the model’s outputs to uncertainty scenarios.
Integrated analysis and modeling of land use efficiency and security under rapid agricultural transformation due to urban-rural Dynamics in China
This project is being run in cooperation with China’s partners and with the support of the National Science Foundation of China. In 2012 data at the country, town and village levels were collected, and the construction of a household behavior model was initiated.
Prospects of coordinated socioeconomic development of Russia and Ukraine in a European context
This project was coordinated by ASA and run by eight institutes of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) in collaboration with Ukrainian partners and with the support of the Presidium of the RAS.
