Envisioning Paradigm Shifts in Society (PASHMINA)


The PASHMINA project used complex modeling to create scenarios that envision changes in the use of energy, transportation, land, and the environment 20 to 40 years into the future.

PASHMINA project logo

PASHMINA project logo


PASHMINA was an effort to anticipate and model possible paradigm shifts in the economic, social, technological, and environmental spheres and to understand their implications. The project created a host of scenarios depicting major changes in energy supplies, agriculture, land use, transportation, and the environment. A central goal of PASHMINA was to avoid the historical tendency of seeing the future as a continuation of the past and instead envision a significantly different future.  

IIASA Research

IIASA’s economic, energy, and land use models (including GLOBIOM and BeWhere) were integrated with models used by other project consortium members and adapted to make long-range forecasts more sensitive to paradigm shifts. With better models detailing an array of scenarios, policymakers can better anticipate which options to choose and which to avoid.

Examining the trade-offs and the costs and benefits of different strategies is essential if scientists are to identify robust solutions to problems in the context of limited resources and a changing climate.

Further information on the PASHMINA project website.

Print this page

Last edited: 02 June 2014


Michael Obersteiner

Principal Research Scholar Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems Research Group - Advancing Systems Analysis Program

T +43(0) 2236 807 460


COMPLETED - 31.10.2012

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313