The 2012 Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
Based on research with its GAINS model, IIASA produced a series of analyses that explored cost-effective emission ceilings for the Parties of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution. These reports served as input to the negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol.
The following reports were presented to the negotiations:
CIAM Report 1/2012
On May 4, 2012, Parties to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution reached agreement on a revised Gothenburg Protocol on further reductions of air pollutants in Europe. This report estimates the environmental improvements that are expected from the agreed emission reduction requirements.
Using IIASA's GAINS model that has been employed for the negotiations on a revised protocol, it is found that air quality in Europe is expected to improve up to 2020 compared with today. However, improvements that are envisaged from the agreement are less far-reaching than what has been expected during the negotiations from the full implementation of already agreed national emission control legislation.
Download report : Environmental Improvements of the 2012 Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol. CIAM report 1/2012 - Version 1.1 (September 2012).
CIAM Report 5/2011
This report presents estimates of the ammonia emission reductions and costs of the measures included in the Draft Annex IX prepared by the Task Force on Reactive Nitrogen (TFRN) for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol. The estimates for the three different ambition levels have been derived with the GAINS model, assuming that these measures are implemented equally in all countries irrespective of their cost-effectiveness.
Download report : Ammonia reductions and costs implied by the three ambition levels proposed in the Draft Annex IX to the Gothenburg protocol. CIAM report 5/2011 – Version 1.1 (November 2011).
CIAM Report 4/2011
IIASA has prepared a background report for the 49th meeting of the Working Group on Strategies and Review (Geneva, September 12-15, 2011) to inform negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol about the scope for further environmental improvements. This report presents revised emission control scenarios that would achieve the environmental targets laid out in the earlier CIAM 1/2011 report, taking into account the latest updated information on national emission inventories and projections provided by Parties to the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution.
Download report : An Updated Set of Scenarios of Cost-effective Emission Reductions for the Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol. Background paper for the 49th Session of the Working Group on Strategies and Review, Geneva, September 12-15, 2011. CIAM report 4/2011 (August 2011).
Updated data sheets with details of country-specific measures are available.
Following the WGSR meeting the chair of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling has prepared tables giving emission reduction percentages for all ambition options on the basis of the emission data in CIAM report 4/2011.
CIAM Report 2/2011
A background paper prepared for the 14th meeting of the UNECE Task Force on Health describes a revised approach to the assessment of the health impact related to exposure to fine particulate matter in the GAINS model. While the current GAINS assessment is based on all-cause mortality, the new approach employs cause-specific concentration-response relationships for lung cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases for European countries.
Download report : Calculation of cause-specific mortality impacts of fine particulate matter in GAINS. Background paper for the Meeting of the UNECE Task Force on Health, Bonn, May 12-13, 2011. CIAM Report 2/2011 (May 2011).
CIAM Report 1/2011
A background report for the 48th meeting of the Working Group on Strategies and Review of the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has been prepared by IIASA to inform negotiations on the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol about the scope for further environmental improvements. The report presents a series of emission control scenarios that illustrate options for cost?effective improvements of air quality in Europe.
Download report : Cost-effective Emission Reductions to Improve Air Quality in Europe in 2020. Background paper for the 48th Session of the Working Group on Strategies and Review,
Geneva, April 11-14, 2011. CIAM Report 1/2011 - Version 2.1 (March 2011).
(This report is an updated version - v2.1 31st March 2011 - of the draft paper that has been presented to the 39th Meeting of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling). The report is also available in a Russian version (thanks to IVL, Sweden).
Data sheets with details of country-specific measures are available.